tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-86462423632198373892024-03-04T21:10:27.836-08:00Wealth NinjaWealth building should be like a Ninja.
Stealth. Efficient. Swift.
Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.comBlogger44125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-1205079801735367302019-07-29T00:17:00.003-07:002020-06-19T19:13:49.153-07:00Passive income in Singapore<h2 style="text-align: left;">
What is passive income in Singapore?</h2>
Passive income is cash flow received on a regular basis, that requires little or NO EFFORT by you to maintain it. In layman term, we can call it "make money while you sleep".<br /><br />This is as opposed to "Active Income" which is income that requires effort by you to receive this income. Almost everyone has an active income, such as your salary, or your business profit. In this way, most businesses are active income, not passive income, since the businessman has to work on his business to receive the income stream. <div><br /></div><div>Another example, precious <a href="https://goldsilvercity.com.sg/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">gold and silver in Singapore</a> does not provide passive income, they are mere speculations.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEhNiitKCTwIuFt22xhhuK9SyAbUXzthzeq7Jj-eeT9MDMVyqPzNpg9wgprmT8Y-PnwgNVU34NxOwsnojXJ9Jdu0Rp-eGS0j3DPVR2M6DXbKmsEc8xt79l4pTBeIxKzisstBFfkN0FraRCxHTvyNIZ-mBeUYCINfSyg-gfjMqzB2cxjB2eWw4QWUwTLLCM_dPjwKCm_Bq-G0erfUI1J3kx7_FOWTgHP5YqjmV5-LtXl1Wg=s1140" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="597" data-original-width="1140" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEhNiitKCTwIuFt22xhhuK9SyAbUXzthzeq7Jj-eeT9MDMVyqPzNpg9wgprmT8Y-PnwgNVU34NxOwsnojXJ9Jdu0Rp-eGS0j3DPVR2M6DXbKmsEc8xt79l4pTBeIxKzisstBFfkN0FraRCxHTvyNIZ-mBeUYCINfSyg-gfjMqzB2cxjB2eWw4QWUwTLLCM_dPjwKCm_Bq-G0erfUI1J3kx7_FOWTgHP5YqjmV5-LtXl1Wg=s320" width="320" /></a></div><div><br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
Why you should have passive income for retirement?</h2>
<blockquote>
<em>We can't work forever, can we? </em></blockquote>
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Elderly Care in Singapore is expensive</h3>
If you age badly, you may see a drop in active income even before retirement age. Due to aging problem, you may get retrenched, demotion, re-allocated to other sections, your active income will go down, for sure. And you definitely need more elderly care, for example, do you have any idea how much <a href="https://seniorcare.com.sg/product-category/mobility-aids/walking-sticks/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">walking sticks in Singapore</a> costs? Or you prefer something more powered, more electrical and mobile? Do you know how much a <a href="https://seniorcare.com.sg/product-category/motorised/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">motorized wheelchair scooter in Singapore</a> costs? Hint: Going to cost more than a drink in the pub.<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Living in Singapore is expensive</h3>
In the best pink of health situation, we probably retire around 60s. With long life expectancy, we still have more than 20 years of life to enjoy, and live off our savings. We will have zero active income as a retiree.<br />
And you still need tonics as an elderly! You probably still need tonics like <a href="https://honeycity.com.sg/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">manuka honey</a> or <a href="https://seniorcare.com.sg/brand/abbott-nutrition/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Abbott's Ensure</a>. Your simple cup of <a href="https://coffeesignature.com/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">exotic coffee</a> is not going to be just kopi-o nor cheap.<div><br /><div>All we are saying is: it isn't cheap to age well in Singapore.</div><div>Well, how about building up your passive income while you are young and fit?</div><br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
How to have a passive income?</h2>
Build them. Here are some easy and common ways.... and some not common ways. We give you 6 Passive Income in Singapore!<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
1. Stocks Dividends</h3>
Invest in long-term, good lasting stocks. This is the #1 way to build passive income and the most stable way. The easiest way is to buy stocks that give regular and stable dividends. This dividend can be a great source of passive income.<br />
For example, as of now, 2018 last quarter, $2.92 USD per 1 Apple share (valued at USD $226 now) . That is only a 1.3% dividend yield, but justifiable as Apple stocks have risen a lot in the past few years and you stand to gain from capital growth as well.<br />
Many SG stocks give more than 6% dividend yield, for example, UOB has 6.92%, DBS has 6.73% while Singtel is giving 6.45% dividend yields.<br />
<h4>
What if the stocks are invested have no dividends payout?</h4>
Simple. From that stock, simply sell off a small amount of the share to give you that dividend. For example, if you have 5000 of apple stocks, and the dividend of $14,600 is not sufficient, you may perhaps sell off 23 shares to get $5000 USD to spend.<br />
Do pace your sales so that you have enough stocks to feed your retirement in the long run!<br />
<h3>
2. Bonds</h3>
Bonds are basically loans to the bond-providers. Bonds interests rate is usually lower than stocks' returns and that is because they have lower risks. In the event of a default, bond owners get paid first before stock owners get paid.</div><div><br />
Corporate bonds have more risks than government bonds because corporates have a higher chance of failure and defaults.</div><div><br />
Singapore government provides SSB, <a href="http://www.sgs.gov.sg/savingsbonds/Your-SSB/This-months-bond.aspx">Singapore Saving Bonds</a>, that provides an annual rate of 2.48% if you carry it till 10 years period. Furthermore, there is no penalty if you stop and sell off your bonds halfway. You will merely get the lower interest rate instead. For example, if you sold off after 1 year, you will get back your capital plus 1.80% interest rate for 1-year holdings.<br />
The rate may be low, but bonds can be a good portion of your retirement passive income portfolio.<br />
<h3>
3. Annuities by insurance firms</h3>
Annuities are the exact opposite of life insurance. Life insurance pays out in case you die prematurely. Annuities pay you forever in case you live long after your expected lifespan.<br />
Annuities are passive income, perpetually. This means they will pay you a fixed sum annually forever, even if you live beyond the usual average life expectancy. This is a great way to hedge against living beyond your fixed savings, with stable passive income.<br />
Usually, annuities are quite expensive to purchase and has a lousy rate of returns. I will say annuity is preferred for people who are not so financially savvy. If you can, stick to the other options!<br />
<h3>
4. Books, music, videos, content of IP value</h3>
After you have written a book, your effort stops, and yet the</div><div> book sales 10 years later will continue to generate royalties paid to you. This goes the same for music, videos, the content of intellectual property value. You get paid months or years after the content is created.</div><div><br />
You can write ebooks, write music and sell in iTunes, or create videos on youtube or blog to receive royalties or advertisement incomes (youtube, blogger, etc pays for advert displayed on your content). Look at what this Singapore blogger did for <a href="https://asmrdoc.com/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">ASMR in Singapore</a>. All for passive income in her retirement.<br />
The bad flaw to this? It takes creative talent and <strong>lots of hard work</strong> to make this passive income to be significant. If you do love writing and creating, this will be a great hobby for you!<br />
<h3>
5. Crowdfunding, P2P, Alternative Investments</h3>
Peer-to-Peer lending or P2P and crowdfunding is the new share-economy way of raising capital for businesses. You provide capital to small startups in return for a higher rate of returns. This is like the simple version of bonds. </div><div><br /></div><div>Usually, these startups have not much business history and would not qualify for any bank loans or bonds, and therefore they have to offer a much higher return of 8% to 20% yearly from platforms like <a href="https://www.lendingclub.com/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Lending Club</a> or <a href="https://www.moolahsense.com/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">MoolahSense</a>.</div><div><br />
As you can guess, they have a higher rate of defaults as startups are not as established as companies with profitable history. This is why banks do not lend to them in the first place.</div><div><br />
Still, do your own due diligence. Some P2P can earns up to 42.5% annually with insurance protection:- just look at what this blogger writes on <a href="https://wiseoftheday.blogspot.com/2018/10/alternative-investment-passive-income.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Passive income in Singapore</a>.<br />
<h3>
6. Property Income in Singapore</h3>
The holy grail of passive income in Singapore. You buy 1 (or 2 and more) properties and you rent them out for passive rental income. Not only are you getting decent dividends on your returns, but you get to participate in capital growth when your property appreciates in value.</div><div><br /></div><h3><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7E3wCLtliNukXdkf17j62oI_M4_MmcVNTYTQ5W0w7DwVvpgPhLHz1PfDEt55BFJ8UVry0fLypUoQzOP3-dmJQuRrk7o5-iHfc4TzRRri0SANc1ELa6uIp-si1_z9vvdU3d06RevT23ps/s4032/IMG_7121.HEIC" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="Property to buy for rental income" border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7E3wCLtliNukXdkf17j62oI_M4_MmcVNTYTQ5W0w7DwVvpgPhLHz1PfDEt55BFJ8UVry0fLypUoQzOP3-dmJQuRrk7o5-iHfc4TzRRri0SANc1ELa6uIp-si1_z9vvdU3d06RevT23ps/w320-h240/IMG_7121.HEIC" width="320" /></a></h3><div><br /></div><div><br />
The only problems? You need to have 2 properties to start renting since your family and you probably have to live in your first home. And properties have a high capital amount required.</div><div><br />
There are also significant tax and duties involved, such as ABSD, Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty.<br />
Despite Singapore's crowded and high urbanized setting, there are still properties that have low lousy tenant potential and generates bad returns, you have to do your homework and focus on properties that can rent out easily and gives a good rate of return.</div><div><br />
More questions on property investment? Google and read up more!<br />
<br />
Yours truly,<br />
Cedric Maverick</div><div><br />
This article is written by Cedric Maverick, author of many blogs such as his <a href="https://patronstands.com/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">music instrument stands</a> business, his coffee blog etc. </div><div><br /></div><div>He wishes Singaporeans will plan for their retirement rather than depends on CPF. And he hopes to own his 3rd property for more passive income soon!<br />
<br />
<a href="https://seniorcare.com.sg/">SeniorCare- Ensure, Jevity, Glucerna Elderly store</a></div></div>Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-20151768460966252762015-10-23T19:31:00.003-07:002015-10-23T19:31:40.299-07:00Gold To Trade ‘Well Below’ $1,100, But Not Under $1,000 - LBMA’s Top Forecaster<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="216" mozallowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" src="http://www.thestreet.com/embed/13332034.html" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="384"></iframe>
<div id="currentDescription" itemprop="description" style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 26px; padding-top: 20px;">
Sentiment toward metals, particularly gold, seems to be bearish these days and an LBMA six-time forecasting winner says he expects the price to trend lower in 2016. Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Hong Kong-based consultancy Precious Metals Insights, said he expects gold prices to trend ‘well below $1,100’ an ounce. ‘I think gold at the moment is looking very ‘toppy,’’ he told Kitco News at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) conference in Vienna, Austria. However, despite the somewhat bearish call, he said he doesn’t expect the metal to trade at sub-$1,000 levels for too long. </div>
<div id="currentDescription" itemprop="description" style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 26px; padding-top: 20px;">
‘That does not mean we can’t get a spike below but I don’t think we’re going to trade for any extensive period below that level,’ he noted. In 2014, the LBMA awarded Klapwijk with the top forecasting title for platinum, which he said should continue to suffer post the Volkswagen scandal. ‘The reason for that is the very high market share of diesel in Europe and the damage, I think, will be done somewhat permanently to diesel’s image in Europe,’ he explained. Comex December gold futures were last quoted $2.40 lower at $1,175.10 an ounce, while Nymex January platinum futures fell $8.20 to $1,011.90.</div>
<div class="tickers" id="tickerList" style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 15.86px; margin-top: 9px;">
Stocks in this video: <a href="http://www.thestreet.com/quote/GC.html" style="border: none; color: #003366; line-height: 1.4em; margin: 0px 7px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;">GC</a><a href="http://www.thestreet.com/quote/PA.html" style="border: none; color: #003366; line-height: 1.4em; margin: 0px 7px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;">PA</a><a href="http://www.thestreet.com/quote/SL.html" style="border: none; color: #003366; line-height: 1.4em; margin: 0px 7px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;">SL</a></div>
Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-71281279354443219432015-07-09T05:28:00.004-07:002015-07-09T05:28:46.755-07:00How do we test for fake or real gold?When we buy precious metals, we want to make sure we get the real, authentic metal. We want the real gold. There are many good ways to test for gold.
<strong>Caliper Test</strong>
Many established branded gold bars or coins has known dimension and tight tolerance levels. For example, a 1 oz Canadian Maple Leaf Gold Coin has a diameter of 30.0mm and a thickness of 2.80mm. A 1 oz Chinese Panda Gold coin has a diameter of 30.05mm and a thickness of 2.70mm. Calipers can reveal any inconsistencies in dimensions, and you should refrain from buying such items.
[caption id="attachment_1098" align="alignnone" width="706"]<img alt="Gold Coin CML descriptions" class="size-full wp-image-1098" src="http://goldsilvercity.com.sg/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/alot-of-decription-.jpg" height="495" width="706" /> Gold Coin CML descriptions[/caption]
<strong>Magnet Test</strong>
One of the easiest way is to use magnet. Most metals are attracted to magnet, but silver and gold are diamagnetic (metals that are not attracted to magnets) and a magnet will not stick to it. Use a very strong magnet, such as neodymium, to test the gold. If it stick to the magnet, then it is fake gold.
Do note that this is not a 100% foolproof test to determine real gold. Some counterfeit gold are made from metals that are not magnetic in nature.
<strong>Density Test</strong>
Get an accurate scale and note the weight of your Gold bar.
Get a glass of water, place it on the scale, and set the scale to ZERO.
Tie the gold bar, dip it COMPLETELY into the water, but without touching the base of the glass. The gold bar should be in the middle of the water, note this new weight number on the scale.
Divide the first weight of the bar, by the 2nd weight number (in the water), this number should be 19.30 for an accurate measurement of Gold density. (Pure Gold Density = 19.30 g/cm<sup><small>3</small></sup>)
<img alt="" class="alignnone" src="http://i761.photobucket.com/albums/xx257/qanessa/Metal%20Detecting/IMG_2237.jpg" height="500" width="324" />
<strong>Ultrasound Test.</strong>
Using special instrument, you can use an ultrasonic device to test for consistency in a bullion bar. Sound waves travel at different speed through different metal. If your gold bar is merely gold plated, the numbers would differ from a pure gold bar of 99.9 purity. The sound velocity for pure gold should be 3200 meters / second (or 0.130 Inch/µSecond)
<img alt="" class="alignnone" src="http://testyourgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Ultrasound-reflection.jpg" height="124" width="348" />
<strong>Porcelain Test</strong>
Rub the piece of gold across a piece of unglazed porcelain tile. It should not make a black streak. If it does then it is pyrite. If the streak is golden yellow then it is gold.
<strong>Acid Test</strong>
Warning: This test is destructive and will spoil a tiny portion of your gold. Please do not use unless absolutely necessary.
Buy a nitric acid test kit. Scratch a surface of the gold piece and add a few drops of the acid on the gold. If it turns green, the item is either brass metal or gold plated. If it turns milky, it is gold plated sterling silver. If there is no reaction, then it is real gold.
Some key pointers before you buy that gold!
<br />
<ul>
<li>Buy from a reputable merchant. If you buy directly from something like Ebay or Carousell, there are no guarantees that your product is authentic.<span style="color: blue;"><em> (<a href="http://www.goldsilvercity.com.sg/">www.goldsilvercity.com.sg</a> is backed by a Singapore firm, Newell Builders Pte Ltd, that has been established for more than 30 years. We are here for long term business. Over time, we have many regular gold and silver clients, check the clients' reviews at www.facebook.com/goldsilvercitysg)</em></span></li>
<li>Mints are starting to fight back as well – some newer products have additional security features to prevent counterfeiting.</li>
<li>Know and understand how the different tests for fake bullion work, and use them to verify that your gold or silver is real.</li>
</ul>
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Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-23541666173104849532015-05-07T00:00:00.000-07:002015-05-07T00:00:08.892-07:00Demand for Silver – Silver in everyday uses<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #666666; font-family: 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28.8888893127441px; margin-bottom: 1.5em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
What is silver used for? Just jewellery? More than you think.....</div>
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One of the reason to be bullish on silver in the long term is that silver is used by many commercial and industrial firms for products that are indispensable in our daily lives. Demand for Silver is high in our industrial society.<br />
Silver is now such a versatile industrial metal that we see it as a great way to save and invest in our diversified portfolio.</div>
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You may not realised it, but the moment you woke up, you have been using products with silver in it.<br />
Silver is present in your alarm clock, your wall switch, bathroom mirror, your electronics devices that you check immediately upon waking up, such as your mobile phone, your iPad, Apple Watch or your computers.</div>
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When you have breakfast, silver is in your microwave, your refrigerator, your water purifier.<br />
Silver is now starting to be used widely to purify your water instead of toxic chemicals like chlorine or bromine. Silver is also used in some food processing, and food packaging to keep bacteria out.</div>
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<figure class="wp-caption aligncenter" id="attachment_960" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: #666666; font-family: 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28.8888893127441px; margin: 0px auto 1.5em; max-width: 100%; width: 232px;"><img alt="Demand for Silver" class=" wp-image-960" src="http://goldsilvercity.com.sg/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/34-2014-AusKoala-Silver-1oz-Bullion-Obverse-LowRes1.jpg" height="231" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" width="232" /><figcaption class="wp-caption-text" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; font-style: oblique; margin: 0.8075em 0px; text-align: center;">Money. Silver is minted as money as well.</figcaption></figure><br />
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When you switched on your electricity, not only are silver wiring more efficient in conducting electricity, your energy plants also uses silver for generation.<br />
Fossil fuel plants uses silver coated mirror for steam generation, and solar photovoltaics uses silver paste in their productions.</div>
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You put on your clothes, if you are wearing polyester, silver is required. And if you used a washing machine to clean your clothes, silver is present as a catalyst for the cleansing operations. For smart clothings now in trials, silver is used too.</div>
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As you head out to your car to start your day, guess what, your car contains many ounces of silver, both in the electronics component as well as in the engine as catalyst. Your modern RIFD car key contains silver, and if you are one of the electric car owners, well, more silver is inside.</div>
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Yes I can go on and on, but I think you get the message, widespread demand for silver is a key fundamental reason why so many savers and investors like to stock up on silver. And many have stock up from <a href="http://www.goldsilvercity.com.sg/" style="-webkit-transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #d2a32e; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; vertical-align: baseline;">www.goldsilvercity.com.sg</a></div>
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For seasoned investors with a healthy portfolio of stocks, bonds or property, silver /gold physical bullions offer a great way to diversify into a stable and rewarding portfolio such as the Browne Permanent Portfolio, which I will go into more details on another post.</div>
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<br /></div>
A<span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 16px;">s for why physical holding of bullions and coins may be a good choice, we would visit this soon! </span><br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 16px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 16px;">C</span><span style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">edric Soh</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="http://www.goldsilvercity.com.sg/" style="-webkit-transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #d2a32e; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; vertical-align: baseline;">www.goldsilvercity.com.sg</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 28.8888893127441px;">PS:- Pls visit </span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/goldsilvercitysg" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 28.8888893127441px;">https://www.facebook.com/goldsilvercitysg</a><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 28.8888893127441px;"> to LIKE the page for weekly updates, photos and promotions.</span></div>
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Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-71002818147083633002015-05-04T00:00:00.000-07:002015-05-04T00:00:00.585-07:00Why own physical silver or gold? Protect & accumulate wealth<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #666666; font-family: 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28.8888893127441px; margin-bottom: 1.5em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Many people have asked me why should they own physical stocks, instead of just CFD or paper certificate silver or paper gold?</div>
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For many investors, they may choose to hold a portion of their investments in gold and silver to hedge against inflation and economic black swan events. To hold precious metals as a hedge, there are a huge variety of choices – Gold, Silver ETFs, stocks holdings of mining companies and paper certificates.. So why own physical silver or gold?</div>
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Do remember that all paper assets are at the mercy of the financial market. Paper records can be varnished in a disaster, either man-made or natural. Financial markets turmoils in a black swan event can rendered you asset-less.<br />
Only physical gold / silver bars or coins that you possess guarantees ownerships.<br />
<img alt="why own physical silver or gold" class=" wp-image-1930 aligncenter" src="http://goldsilvercity.com.sg/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Saving-Gold-Bar.jpg" height="223" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" width="297" /><br />
By investing in physical stocks, you would also have a better saving habit due to human psychological emotions. – You would be much more reluctant to return your physical silver bars or coins than it is to click on “sell” on your paper certificates.</div>
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Buying physical gold / silver bullion or coin is also amazingly easy.</h4>
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There is no need to set up brokerage account, no need to sign any documents. You can just walk into any jewellery or coin/bullion shops, though you would have to pay a slight premium. An easier way is to buy online from<a href="http://www.goldsilvercity.com.sg/" style="-webkit-transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #d2a32e; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; vertical-align: baseline;">www.goldsilvercity.com.sg</a> which provides free delivery as well. You would be paying lesser because the online business has no expensive rentals. Every dollar saved goes to your peaceful retirement account!</div>
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Large bullions like 1 kg silver bar is more value for money. However you may consider smaller coins or bars, such as 10-ounce coins. A large collection of smaller coins or bars is easier for you to only sell a few coins to meet your needs, such as for a travel holiday, a business expansion, instead of having to sell the whole kilogram of silver or gold.</div>
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It is also more sensible to collect silver, as silver is more affordable and easier to collect monthly as a saving plan. As an investment asset, it is comparable in terms of liquidity, long term value, and has great fundamental demands in industries.</div>
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When you fall in love with gold, silver collection, you may move to numismatic collections, appreciating the artistic and beautiful designs on coins! There are many reasons to why own physical silver or gold, but one of the best reason is probably this:- it can be a great hobby for many collectors. Collectors know that many of their collections appreciate in values, and could be a lot more financial rewarding than other expensive hobbies.</div>
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Sincerely,<br />
Cedric Soh<br />
<a href="http://www.goldsilvercity.com.sg/">www.goldsilvercity.com.sg</a><br />
<br />
PS: <span style="line-height: 28.8888893127441px;">Pls visit </span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/goldsilvercitysg" style="line-height: 28.8888893127441px;">https://www.facebook.com/goldsilvercitysg</a><span style="line-height: 28.8888893127441px;"> to LIKE the page for weekly updates, photos and promotions.</span></div>
Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-33543625789413676662015-05-01T06:48:00.003-07:002017-02-03T19:40:05.422-08:00Buy Silver Gold Singapore Free Delivery?<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #666666; font-family: 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28.8888893127441px; margin-bottom: 1.5em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Heya, are you living in Singapore and stacking up physical silver and gold bars / coins?</div>
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Gold Silver City now offers you an easy way to invest and save up in physical silver and gold! You can now buy silver or gold, either in bars or coins, from the comfort of your home. You only pay for it when it arrives at your doorstep.</div>
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<img alt="Buy Silver Gold Singapore Free Delivery" class=" aligncenter wp-image-1916" height="207" src="https://goldsilvercity.com.sg/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Free-Delivery.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" width="206" /></div>
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Buy Silver Gold Singapore Free Delivery</h4>
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We deliver the silver and gold to your location. For this soft launch of our website, we have reduced the minimum requirements. That is right, instead of the usual 100 oz silver minimum purchase, <span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">all combined purchases above $200 is entitled to qualify for this FREE delivery offer!</strong></span><br />
This free delivery will last till 1st June 2015, on our official launch date! Do stay tuned on this website or <a href="https://www.facebook.com/goldsilvercitysg" style="-webkit-transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #d2a32e; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; vertical-align: baseline;">like our Facebook page</a> for special launch promotion!</div>
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And to top it off, we are currently the lowest priced for all of our silver and gold bullion and numismatic coins in Singapore! Not only are our gold and silver prices the best in Singapore market, you are getting a special delivery service with it. There are no financial risks as you only pay when delivery is made to your location.</div>
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As mentioned in our <a href="http://goldsilvercity.com.sg/about-us/" style="-webkit-transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #d2a32e; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; vertical-align: baseline;">About Us</a>, we have our background in 30 over years of construction business. We are vested to provide high grade silver and gold precious metal to all our clients!</div>
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Please do take advantage of the current low historical silver and gold spot rate to <a href="http://www.goldsilvercity.com.sg/" style="-webkit-transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #d2a32e; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; vertical-align: baseline;">Buy Silver Gold Singapore Free Delivery!</a><br />
This is a simply great time to start saving up in precious gold and silver.<br />
For all enquires, you can email me at info@goldsilvercity.com.sg</div>
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Sincerely,<br />
Cedric Soh<br />
www.goldsilvercity.com.sg</div>
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PS: If you know a good deal, please do share it with your friends! Please Like and Share <a href="https://www.facebook.com/goldsilvercitysg" style="-webkit-transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #d2a32e; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; vertical-align: baseline;">our facebook page</a>, or recommend your relatives and friends to us. They would appreciate you recommending a good deal. =)</div>
Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-32713741947418383482015-03-30T01:12:00.001-07:002015-03-30T01:12:22.510-07:00USA stocks & options- Updates 30 March 2015<b><u>Stocks and/or Options (bullish options strategy only)</u></b><br />
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Strategy of portfolio holdings based mostly on FA.<br />
Entry and exit will slightly depends on TA.<br />
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<u>Current Portfolio- (arranged accordingly to weightage)</u><br />
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AAPL</div>
MEI<br />
HCP<br />
SIG<br />
RAI<br />
LB<br />
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Will sell OTM calls for the above portfolios, if not assigned, its premiums for me.<br />
If assigned, happy to sell them off with profits.<br />
Just collected premiums for AAPL. Will add on to MEI position<br />
Will also add on to LB position.<br />
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<u>Holding but considering selling them off at a losses</u><br />
GPRO<br />
BABA<br />
PBR<br />
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<u>Additional to Portfolio</u><br />
Planning to add these 3 stocks, which are great in FA, and excellent entry points based on TA.<br />
All three stocks will benefit from a booming USA domestic market, and the stronger USD would not affect them.<br />
All current outlook is on companies with a domestic advantage.<br />
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ALL<br />
CHRW<br />
COST<br />
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COST Chart<br />
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CHRW Chart<br />
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ALL Chart<br />
<br />Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-38339656587852341432015-02-21T07:57:00.000-08:002015-02-21T07:57:27.943-08:00Turtle Trader System and Rules<br />
The Complete Turtle Trader<br />
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I did not summarise the human stories and emotions behind it because it would be difficult for me to do justice to the stories. Basically you need to read it to understand the essence. But if you take my word, it just means anyone can be a trader, but you need to put in effort and practise hard.<br />
Practise practise practise.<br />
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But I have taken the technical rules of the turtle trading system and symmarise here.<br />
Take note these are the technical rules... do not run too far without the software.<br />
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;">Trading your Own Account Tip #1</span></div>
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;"></span><br clear="none" />You need to calculate your edge for every trading decision you make, because you can't make "bets" if you don't know your edge. It's not about the frequency of how correct you are; it's about the magnitude of how correct you are.<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;">Trading your Own Account Tip #2</span><div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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Stop watching TV! Stop looking at financial news.<br clear="none" />Start keeping track of the Open High Low, and Close of each market you are trading.<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;">Trading your Own Account Tip #3</span><br clear="none" /><strong style="line-height: 1.428571em;">System One</strong><br clear="none" />4 week price breakout for entry<br clear="none" />-enter if market make a new 4week high (or low for shorting)<br clear="none" />-exit if market makes a 2weeks low (or high for shorting)<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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2week means 10 trading days.<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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Filters- The turtles ignored System one if the last 4weeks breakout signal was a winner, even if they didnt take it.<br clear="none" />If the last 4weeks breakout signal was a 2N loss they could take the breakout ("N" was simply their measure of volatility)<br clear="none" />Direction of the 4weeks breakout was irrelevant, if their last trade was a short losing trade and a new long or short breakout hit, they could take it.<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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Proglem- if the last trade is a winner and turtles have to ignore this new trade, they may miss beginning of a hugely profitable trend. Hence they can use System Two<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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<strong style="line-height: 1.428571em;">System Two</strong><br clear="none" />11weeks breakout (55days) for entry and 4weeks breakout in opposite direction to exit.<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;">Trading your own account #4</span><br clear="none" />You are going to live emotionally losing 7 out of 10 trades.<br clear="none" />This is the only way you were ever going to hook the real trend.<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;">Trading your Own Account Tip #5</span><br clear="none" />Feel free to experiment on the breakout length, do not fixate on specific values. The key will be to accept a breakout value and stick with it consistently. Test and practice are wise for confidence. Trust, but verify.<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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In reality, a minor change of a variable in any robust trading system should not cause significant pwrformance changes.<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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Liquidation is vastly more important than initiations. If Turtles applief appropriate risk management they could handle the worst that came down the pike once they were in any trade.<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;">Trading your Own Account Tip #6</span><br clear="none" />Stop worrying only about how you enter a trade. The key is to know at all times when you will exit.<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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Risk Management- how much do u bet on each trade?<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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Volatility "daily range" "N" maximum of the following<br clear="none" />1) distance from today's high to today's low<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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2) distance from yesterday's close to today's high<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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3) distance from yesterday's close to today's low.<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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If the result is a negative number, it is turned into an absolute value.<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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Max value of the 3 choices is the "true range" or technically the absolute distance (either up or down) the market travelled in a 24hrs period.<br clear="none" />This is also the "Average True Range", ATR.<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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Take the 20days Moving Average<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;">Trading your Own Account Tip #7</span><br clear="none" />All turtles must know how to calculate N values.<br clear="none" />N is a volatility measurement and a useful rule of thumb to classify how far a market has trended.<br clear="none" />Trade the amount in terms of N, remove the emotions in term of money.<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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N fluctuate, take note of the fluctuation.<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;">Trading your Own Account Tip #8</span><br clear="none" />2% of your cash is 1 unit.</div>
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A Hard stop of 2 N</div>
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For example a corn futures is $50</div>
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A N of 7 cents, means a risk of $350 ($50 x 7)</div>
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2 N means a risk of $700.</div>
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If you have a $100,000 account, 2% means you can risk $2000 only.</div>
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$2000 / $700 (2N) = 2.67 future contract,</div>
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hence, do only 2 contract.</div>
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Hence, a corn unit is same as gold unit or a Cocacola Unit. Deal with the markets in number</div>
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A hard stop of 2N</div>
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If corn futures of 7 cents of N, means 2N = 14 cents.</div>
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An entry price of $250 would see a hard stop at $236</div>
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Just exit, do not overthink.</div>
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A small N means more contracts.</div>
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;">Trading your Own Account Tip #9</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.428571em;">Assume a price entry at 100, and a N of 5.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.428571em;">Pile a new unit entry at 105, 110, pyramid till a maximum of 5 units.</span></div>
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On first day of trading, stops may be 1/2N. And from then onwards, 2N stops to be used. Once 2nd unit was bought, both stops brought up to the new unit's 2N stop.</div>
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As new units were added, all stops were brought up to the stop of the newest unit added.</div>
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;">Trading your Own Account Tip #10</span></div>
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1) Account size $50,000</div>
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Account risk 2%, or $1000.</div>
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Long signal in cattle at $74, 1N value is 0.80</div>
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1 point in live cattle is $400, so 1N = 0.8 = $320</div>
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2N value = $640</div>
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Account risk $1000 / $640 = 1.56 contract</div>
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Hence Trade 1 contract.</div>
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with Stop at $74 - $1.60 = $72.40</div>
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2) When price $74 move to $74.80, a new unit is added</div>
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Account value is now $50,000 + $320</div>
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Account risk 2% = $1006.40</div>
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With 1N remaining at 0.80 or $320, 2N = $640</div>
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Contract to trade = $1006.40 / $640 = 1.57 or 1 contract</div>
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New stop = $74.80 - $1.60 = $73.20</div>
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3) Next point to add unit = 74.80 + 0.80 = $75.6</div>
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Account value now = $50000 + $640 + $320</div>
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Account risk 2% or $1019.20</div>
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At $75.60, add 3rd unit, 1N has decreased to $0.70 or $280 hence 2N is $560</div>
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Contracts to trade $1019.20 / $560 or 1.82contracts = 1 contract</div>
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New stop at 75.60 - 1.40 = 74.20</div>
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Add new unit at 1N or 75.60 + 0.70 = 76.30</div>
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4) Addition of 4th unit</div>
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Account value = $50000 + unit one gain of $920 + unit two gain of $600 + unit three gain of $280</div>
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=$51800</div>
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Account risk 2% or $1036</div>
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at 76.30, 1N = 0.70 = $280, 2N = 1.40 = $560</div>
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Contracts to trade = $1037 / $560 = 1.85 contracts hence 1 contract.</div>
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New Stop at 76.30 - 1.40 = 74.90</div>
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Add new unit at 1N or 76.30 + 0.70 = 77.00</div>
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5) Additional of 5th and final unit</div>
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Account value = $50000 + unit one gain of $1200, units two gain of $880, unit three gain of $560, unit gain of $280 = $52920</div>
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Account risk of 2% or $1058.40</div>
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1N has increased to 0.85 or $340</div>
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2N value is now 1.70 or $680</div>
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Contracts to trade $1058.40 / $680 = 1.55 contract hence 1 contract.</div>
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New Stop at 77 - 1.70 = 75.30</div>
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Position exit</div>
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Live cattle rallied to 84.50 and exit criteria were met.</div>
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The pyramid allows profit with big trends, but many false breakouts that eat away capital</div>
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To protect capital, for every 10% in drawdown, Turtles cut their trading unit risk by 20%.</div>
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If a 11% drawdown happened, their trading size dropped from 2% to 1.6% (2% x 80%)</div>
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If a 22% <span style="line-height: 1.428571em;">drawdown happened, their trading size dropped from 1.6% to 1.28% (1.6% x 80%)</span></div>
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Unit size goes back to normal when capital goes back up.</div>
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One turtle lost 50% of his capital, but ended the year with a bonus when market start clicking.</div>
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Statistically, you will face more incidents of losses than wins, but the pyramid allows riding the trends.</div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.428571em;">Take note that you stop if you reach STOP 2N or via System One or System Two Stop.</span></div>
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;">Trading your Own Account Tip #11</span></div>
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;"></span>Can trade any markets with liquidity and volatility, but do not trade 2 markets with high correlation, that would be like trading in 1 market with 2 units.</div>
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Diversify into many markets of long and short.</div>
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Example portfolio</div>
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Long in corn, feeder cattle, gold and Swiss Francs for 4 units</div>
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Short in british pound, copper and sugar, for 3 units.</div>
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Take the smaller number and divide by 2, subtract from the larger number</div>
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4 - (3/2) = 2.5</div>
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Thats the units at risk, that is how turtles added more units without adding risks.</div>
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The reason to diversify into so many markets is that they do not know when and where would be the next big trends, and they do not want to miss it. Diversify ensure they lose many, but caught on to that big trend.</div>
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<br />Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-11390971266959737372015-01-05T17:36:00.001-08:002015-01-05T17:40:53.709-08:00122 Truths You should know to be a better Investor<blockquote class="tr_bq">
MOTLEY Fool writer Morgan Housel recently came up with an impressive list of 122 investing aphorisms that distil the wisdom he has gleaned from years of writing about markets and the financial industry. Most are either insights into human psychology or historical facts and figures. Almost all of them, in my humble opinion, are good advice.</blockquote>
<br />1. Saying “I’ll be greedy when others are fearful” is easier than actually doing it.<br />
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2. When most people say they want to be a millionaire, what they really mean is “I want to spend $1 million,” which is literally the opposite of being a millionaire.<br />
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3. “Some stuff happened” should replace 99% of references to “it’s a perfect storm.”<br />
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4. Daniel Kahneman’s book Thinking Fast and Slowbegins, “The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people’s mistakes than your own.” This should be every market commentator’s motto.<br />
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5. Blogger Jesse Livermore writes, “My main life lesson from investing: self-interest is the most powerful force on earth, and can get people to embrace and defend almost anything.”<br />
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6. As Erik Falkenstein says: “In expert tennis, 80% of the points are won, while in amateur tennis, 80% are lost. The same is true for wrestling, chess, and investing: Beginners should focus on avoiding mistakes, experts on making great moves.”<br />
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7. There is a difference between, “He predicted the crash of 2008,” and “He predicted crashes, one of which happened to occur in 2008.” It’s important to know the difference when praising investors.<br />
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8. Investor Dean Williams once wrote, “Confidence in a forecast rises with the amount of information that goes into it. But the accuracy of the forecast stays the same.”<br />
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9. Wealth is relative. As comedian Chris Rock said, “If Bill Gates woke up with Oprah’s money he’d jump out the window.”<br />
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10. Only 7% of Americans know the U.S. stock market rose 32% last year, according to Gallup. One-third believe the market either fell or stayed the same. Everyone is aware when markets fall; bull markets can go unnoticed.<br />
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11. Dean Williams once noted that “Expertise is great, but it has a bad side effect: It tends to create the inability to accept new ideas.” Some of the world’s best investors have no formal backgrounds in finance –which helps them tremendously.<br />
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12. The Financial Times wrote, “In 2008 the three most admired personalities in sport were probably Tiger Woods, Lance Armstrong and Oscar Pistorius.” The same falls from grace happen in investing. Chose your role models carefully.<br />
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13. Investor Ralph Wanger once explained how markets work, recalled by Bill Bernstein:<br />
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“He likens the market to an excitable dog on a very long leash in New York City, darting randomly in every direction. The dog’s owner is walking from Columbus Circle, through Central Park, to the Metropolitan Museum. At any one moment, there is no predicting which way the pooch will lurch. But in the long run, you know he’s heading northeast at an average speed of three miles per hour. What is astonishing is that almost all of the market players, big and small, seem to have their eye on the dog, and not the owner.”<br />
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14. Investor Nick Murray once said, “Timing the market is a fool’s game, whereas time in the market is your greatest natural advantage.” Remember this the next time you’re compelled to cash out.<br />
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15. Bill Seidman once said, “You never know what the American public is going to do, but you know that they will do it all at once.” Change is as rapid as it is unpredictable.<br />
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16. Napoleon’s definition of a military genius was, “the man who can do the average thing when all those around him are going crazy.” Same goes in investing.<br />
<br />
17. Blogger Jesse Livermore writes, “Most people, whether bull or bear, when they are right, are right for the wrong reason, in my opinion.”<br />
<br />
18. Investors anchor to the idea that a fair price for a stock must be more than they paid for it. It’s one of the most common, and dangerous, biases that exists. “People do not get what they want or what they expect from the markets; they get what they deserve,” writes Bill Bonner.<br />
<br />
19. Jason Zweig writes, “The advice that sounds the best in the short run is always the most dangerous in the long run.”<br />
<br />
20. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio once said, “The more you think you know, the more closed-minded you’ll be.” Repeat this line to yourself the next time you’re certain of something.<br />
<br />
21. During recessions, elections, and Federal Reserve policy meetings, people become unshakably certain about things they know very little about.<br />
<br />
22. “Buy and hold only works if you do both when markets crash. It’s much easier to both buy and hold when markets are rising,” says Ben Carlson.<br />
<br />
23. Several studies haveshown that people prefer a pundit who is confident to one who is accurate. Pundits are happy to oblige.<br />
<br />
24. According to J.P. Morgan, 40% of stocks have suffered “catastrophic losses” since 1980, meaning they fell at least 70% and never recovered.<br />
<br />
25. John Reed once wrote, “When you first start to study a field, it seems like you have to memorize a zillion things. You don’t. What you need is to identify the core principles — generally three to twelve of them — that govern the field. The million things you thought you had to memorize are simply various combinations of the core principles.” Keep that in mind when getting frustrated over complicated financial formulas.<br />
<br />
26. James Grant says, “Successful investing is about having people agree with you … later.”<br />
<br />
27. Scott Adams writes, “A person with a flexible schedule and average resources will be happier than a rich person who has everything except a flexible schedule. Step one in your search for happiness is to continually work toward having control of your schedule.”<br />
<br />
28. According to Vanguard, 72% of mutual funds in the U.S. (the equivalent of unit trusts here) benchmarked to the S&P 500 (an American market index) underperformed the index over a 20-year period ending in 2010. The phrase “professional investor” is a loose one.<br />
<br />
29. “If your investment horizon is long enough and your position sizing is appropriate, you simply don’t argue with idiocy, you bet against it,” writes Bruce Chadwick.<br />
<br />
30. The phrase “double-dip recession” was mentioned 10.8 million times in 2010 and 2011, according to Google. It never came. There were virtually no mentions of “financial collapse” in 2006 and 2007. It did come. A similar story can be told virtually every year.<br />
<br />
31. According to Bloomberg, the 50 stocks in the S&P 500 that Wall Street rated the lowest at the end of 2011 outperformed the overall index by 7 percentage points over the following year.<br />
<br />
32. “The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the sitting,” said Jesse Livermore.<br />
<br />
33. Investors want to believe in someone. Forecasters want to earn a living. One of those groups is going to be disappointed. You know which.<br />
<br />
34. In a poll of 1,000 American adults, asked, “How many millions are in a trillion?” 79% gave an incorrect answer or didn’t know. Keep this in mind when debating large financial problems.<br />
<br />
35. At last year’s Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Warren Buffett said he has owned 400 to 500 stocks during his career, and made most of his money on 10 of them. This is common: a large portion of investing success often comes from a tiny proportion of investments.<br />
<br />
36. Wall Street consistently expects earnings to beat expectations. It also loves oxymorons.<br />
<br />
37. The S&P 500 gained 27% in 2009 – a phenomenal year. Yet 66% of American investors thought it fell that year, according to a survey by Franklin Templeton. Perception and reality can be miles apart.<br />
<br />
38. As Nate Silver writes, “When a possibility is unfamiliar to us, we do not even think about it.” The biggest risk is always something that no one is talking about, thinking about, or preparing for. That’s what makes it risky.<br />
<br />
39. The next recession is never like the last one.<br />
<br />
40. Since 1871, the U.S. stock market has spent 40% of all years either rising or falling more than 20%. In Singapore, the Straits Times Index (SGX: ^STI) has also spent almost half of all years since 1988 doing the same thing. Roaring booms and crushing busts are perfectly normal.<br />
<br />
41. As the saying goes, “Save a little bit of money each month, and at the end of the year you’ll be surprised at how little you still have.”<br />
<br />
42. John Maynard Keynes once wrote, “It is safer to be a speculator than an investor in the sense that a speculator is one who runs risks of which he is aware and an investor is one who runs risks of which he is unaware.”<br />
<br />
43. “History doesn’t crawl; it leaps,” writes Nassim Taleb. Events that change the world – presidential assassinations, terrorist attacks, medical breakthroughs, bankruptcies – can happen overnight.<br />
<br />
44. Our memories of financial history seem to extend about a decade back. “Time heals all wounds,” the saying goes. It also erases many important lessons.<br />
<br />
45. You are under no obligation to read or watch financial news. If you do, you are under no obligation to take any of it seriously.<br />
<br />
46. The most boring companies – toothpaste, food, bolts – can make some of the best long-term investments. The most innovative, some of the worst.<br />
<br />
47. In a 2011 Gallup poll, 34% of Americans said gold was the best long-term investment, while 17% said stocks. Since then, U.S. stocks are up 87%, gold is down 35%.<br />
<br />
48. According to economist Burton Malkiel, 57 equity mutual funds in the U.S. underperformed the S&P 500 from 1970 to 2012. The shocking part of that statistic is that 57 funds could stay in business for four decades while posting poor returns. Hope often triumphs over reality.<br />
<br />
49. Most economic news that we think is important doesn’t matter in the long run. Derek Thompson ofThe Atlantic once wrote, “I’ve written hundreds of articles about the economy in the last two years. But I think I can reduce those thousands of words to one sentence. Things got better, slowly.”<br />
<br />
50. A broad index of U.S. stocks increased 2,000-fold between 1928 and 2013, but lost at least 20% of its value 20 times during that period. People would be less scared of volatility if they knew how common it was.<br />
<br />
51. The “evidence is unequivocal,” Daniel Kahneman writes, “there’s a great deal more luck than skill in people getting very rich.”<br />
<br />
52. There is a strong correlation between knowledge and humility. The best investors realize how little they know.<br />
<br />
53. Not a single person in the world knows what the market will do in the short run.<br />
<br />
54. Most people would be better off if they stopped obsessing about politics, and the U.S. Federal Reserve, and focused on their own financial mismanagement.<br />
<br />
55. In hindsight, everyone saw the financial crisis coming. In reality, it was a fringe view before mid-2007. The next crisis will be the same (they all work like that).<br />
<br />
56. There were 272 automobile companies in America in 1909. Through consolidation and failure, three emerged on top, two of which went bankrupt. Spotting a promising trend and a winning investment are two different things.<br />
<br />
57. The more someone is on TV, the less likely his or her predictions are to come true. (University of California, Berkeley psychologist Phil Tetlock has data on this).<br />
<br />
58. Maggie Mahar once wrote that “men resist randomness, markets resist prophecy.” Those six words explain most people’s bad experiences in the stock market.<br />
<br />
59. “We’re all just guessing, but some of us have fancier math,” writes Josh Brown.<br />
<br />
60. When you think you have a great idea, go out of your way to talk with someone who disagrees with it. At worst, you continue to disagree with them. More often, you’ll gain valuable perspective. Fight confirmation bias like the plague.<br />
<br />
61. In 1923, nine of the most successful U.S. businessmen met in Chicago. Josh Brown writes:<br />
<br />
“Within 25 years, all of these great men had met a horrific end to their careers or their lives:<br />
<br />
The president of the largest steel company, Charles Schwab, died a bankrupt man; the president of the largest utility company, Samuel Insull, died penniless; the president of the largest gas company, Howard Hobson, suffered a mental breakdown, ending up in an insane asylum; the president of the New York Stock Exchange, Richard Whitney, had just been released from prison; the bank president, Leon Fraser, had taken his own life; the wheat speculator, Arthur Cutten, died penniless; the head of the world’s greatest monopoly, Ivar Krueger the ‘match king’ also had taken his life; and the member of President Harding’s cabinet, Albert Fall, had just been given a pardon from prison so that he could die at home.”<br />
<br />
62. Try to learn as many investing mistakes as possible vicariously through others. Other people have made every mistake in the book. You can learn more from studying the investing failures than the investing greats.<br />
<br />
63. Bill Bonner says there are two ways to think about what money buys. There’s the standard of living, which can be measured in dollars, and there’s the quality of your life, which can’t be measured at all.<br />
<br />
64. If you’re going to try to predict the future – whether it’s where the market is heading, or what the economy is going to do, or whether you’ll be promoted – think in terms of probabilities, not certainties. Death and taxes, as they say, are the only exceptions to this rule.<br />
<br />
65. Focus on not getting beat by the market before you think about trying to beat it.<br />
<br />
66. Polls show Americans for the last 25 years have said the U.S. economy is in a state of decline. Pessimism in the face of advancement is the norm.<br />
<br />
67. Finance would be better if it was taught by the psychology and history departments at universities.<br />
<br />
68. According to economist Tim Duy, “As long as people have babies, capital depreciates, technology evolves, and tastes and preferences change, there is a powerful underlying impetus for growth that is almost certain to reveal itself in any reasonably well-managed economy.”<br />
<br />
69. Study successful investors, and you’ll notice a common denominator: they are masters of psychology. They can’t control the market, but they have complete control over the gray matter between their ears.<br />
<br />
70. In finance textbooks, “risk” is defined as short-term volatility. In the real world, risk is earning low returns, which is often caused by trying to avoid short-term volatility.<br />
<br />
71. Remember what Nassim Taleb says about randomness in markets: “If you roll dice, you know that the odds are one in six that the dice will come up on a particular side. So you can calculate the risk. But, in the stock market, such computations are bull – you don’t even know how many sides the dice have!”<br />
<br />
72. The S&P 500 gained 27% in 1998. But just five stocks – Dell, Lucent,Microsoft, Pfizer, and Wal-Mart – accounted for more than half the gain. There can be huge concentration even in a diverse portfolio.<br />
<br />
73. The odds that at least one well-known company is insolvent and hiding behind fraudulent accounting are pretty high.<br />
<br />
74. The book Where Are the Customers’ Yachts? was written in 1940, and most people still haven’t figured out that brokers don’t have their best interest at heart.<br />
<br />
75. Cognitive psychologists have a theory called “backfiring.” When presented with information that goes against your viewpoints, you not only reject challengers, but double down on your view. Voters often view the candidate they support more favorably after the candidate is attacked by the other party. In investing, shareholders of companies facing heavy criticism often become die-hard supporters for reasons totally unrelated to the company’s performance.<br />
<br />
76. “In the financial world, good ideas become bad ideas through a competitive process of ‘can you top this?'” Jim Grant once said. A smart investment leveraged up with debt becomes a bad investment very quickly.<br />
<br />
77. Remember what Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says: “You have never lost money in stocks over any 20-year period, but you have wiped out half your portfolio in bonds [after inflation]. So which is the riskier asset?”<br />
<br />
78. Warren Buffett’s best returns were achieved when markets were much less competitive. It’s doubtful anyone will ever match his 50-year record.<br />
<br />
79. Twenty-five hedge fund managers took home US$21.2 billion in 2013 for delivering an average performance of 9.1%, versus the 32.4% you could have made in an index fund tracking the S&P 500. Hedge funds a great business to work in – not so much to invest in.<br />
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80. The United States is the only major economy in which the working-age population is growing at a reasonable rate. This might be the most important economic variable of the next half-century.<br />
<br />
81. Most investors have no idea how they actually perform. Markus Glaser and Martin Weber of the University of Mannheim asked investors how they thought they did in the market, and then looked at their brokerage statements. “The correlation between self ratings and actual performance is not distinguishable from zero,” they concluded.<br />
<br />
82. Harvard professor and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says that “virtually everything I taught” in economics was called into question by the financial crisis.<br />
<br />
83. Asked about the economy’s performance after the financial crisis, Charlie Munger said, “If you’re not confused, I don’t think you understand.”<br />
<br />
84. There is virtually no correlation between what the economy is doing and stock market returns. According to Vanguard, rainfall is actually a better predictor of future stock returns than GDP growth. (Both explain slightly more than nothing.)<br />
<br />
85. You can control your portfolio allocation, your own education, who you listen to, what you read, what evidence you pay attention to, and how you respond to certain events. You cannot control what the Fed does, laws politicians sets, economics reports, or whether a company will beat earnings estimates. Focus on the former; try to ignore the latter.<br />
<br />
86. Companies that focus on their stock price will eventually lose their customers. Companies that focus on their customers will eventually boost their stock price. This is simple, but forgotten by countless managers.<br />
<br />
87. Investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort looked at analysts’ predictions of interest rates, and compared that with what interest rates actually did in hindsight. It found an almost perfect lag. “Analysts are terribly good at telling us what has just happened but of little use in telling us what is going to happen in the future,” the bank wrote. It’s common to confuse the rearview mirror for the windshield.<br />
<br />
88. Success is a lousy teacher,” Bill Gates once said. “It seduces smart people into thinking they can’t lose.”<br />
<br />
89. Investor Seth Klarman says, “Macro worries are like sports talk radio. Everyone has a good opinion which probably means that none of them are good.”<br />
<br />
90. Several academic studies have shown that those who trade the most earn the lowest returns. Remember Pascal’s wisdom: “All man’s miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone.”<br />
<br />
91. The best company in the world run by the smartest management can be a terrible investment if purchased at the wrong price.<br />
<br />
92. There will be seven to 10 recessions over the next 50 years. Don’t act surprised when they come.<br />
<br />
93. No investment points are awarded for difficulty or complexity. Simple strategies can lead to outstanding returns.<br />
<br />
94. The president has much less influence over the economy than people think.<br />
<br />
95. However much money you think you’ll need for retirement, double it. Now you’re closer to reality.<br />
<br />
96. For many, a house is a large liability masquerading as a safe asset.<br />
<br />
97. The single best three-year period to own stocks in the U.S. was during the Great Depression. Not far behind was the three-year period starting in 2009, when the American economy struggled in utter ruin. The biggest returns begin when most people think the biggest losses are inevitable.<br />
<br />
98. Remember what Buffett says about progress: “First come the innovators, then come the imitators, then come the idiots.”<br />
<br />
99. And what Mark Twain says about truth: “A lie can travel halfway around the world while truth is putting on its shoes.”<br />
<br />
100. And what Marty Whitman says about information: “Rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise.”<br />
<br />
101. Among Americans aged 18 to 64, the average number of doctor visits decreased from 4.8 in 2001 to 3.9 in 2010. This is partly because of the weak economy, and partly because of the growing cost of medicine, but it has an important takeaway: You can never extrapolate behavior — even for something as vital as seeing a doctor — indefinitely. Behaviors change.<br />
<br />
102. Since last July, elderly Chinese can sue their children who don’t visit often enough, according to Bloomberg. Dealing with an aging population calls for drastic measures.<br />
<br />
103. Someone once asked Warren Buffett how to become a better investor. He pointed to a stack of annual reports. “Read 500 pages like this every day,” he said. “That’s how knowledge works. It builds up, like compound interest. All of you can do it, but I guarantee not many of you will do it.”<br />
<br />
104. If Americans had as many babies from 2007 to 2014 as they did from 2000 to 2007, there would be 2.3 million more kids today. That will affect the economy for decades to come.<br />
<br />
105. The Congressional Budget Office’s 2003 prediction of federal debt in the year 2013 was off by $10 trillion. Forecasting is hard. But we still line up for it.<br />
<br />
106. According to TheWall Street Journal, in 2010, “for every 1% decrease in shareholder return, the average CEO was paid 0.02% more.”<br />
<br />
107. Since 1994, stock market returns are flat if the three days before the Federal Reserve announces interest rate policy are removed, according to a study by the Federal Reserve.<br />
<br />
108. In 1989, the CEOs of the seven largest U.S. banks earned an average of 100 times what a typical household made. By 2007, more than 500 times. By 2008, several of those banks no longer existed.<br />
<br />
109. Two things make an economy grow: population growth and productivity growth. Everything else is a function of one of those two drivers.<br />
<br />
110. The single most important investment question you need to ask yourself is, “How long am I investing for?” How you answer it can change your perspective on everything.<br />
<br />
111. “Do nothing” are the two most powerful – and underused – words in investing. The urge to act has transferred an inconceivable amount of wealth from investors to brokers.<br />
<br />
112. Apple increased more than 6,000% from 2002 to 2012, but declined on 48% of all trading days. It is never a straight path up.<br />
<br />
113. It’s easy to mistake luck for success. J.Paul Getty said, the key to success is: 1) rise early, 2) work hard, 3) strike oil.<br />
<br />
114. Dan Gardner writes, “No one can foresee the consequences of trivia and accident, and for that reason alone, the future will forever be filled with surprises.”<br />
<br />
115. Daniel Kahneman once gave the key to making better decisions. “You should talk to people who disagree with you and you should talk to people who are not in the same emotional situation you are,” he said. Try this before making your next investment decision.<br />
<br />
116. No one on the Forbes 400 list of richest Americans can be described as a “perma-bear.” A natural sense of optimism is not only healthy, but vital.<br />
<br />
117. Economist Alfred Cowles dug through forecasts a popular analyst who “had gained a reputation for successful forecasting” made in The Wall Street Journalin the early 1900s. Among 90 predictions made over a 30-year period, exactly 45 were right and 45 were wrong. This is more common than you think.<br />
<br />
118. Since 1900, the S&P 500 has returned about 6.5% per year, but the average difference between any year’s highest close and lowest close is 23%. Remember this the next time someone tries to explain why the market is up or down by a few percentage points. They are basically trying to explain why night comes after day.<br />
<br />
119. How long you stay invested for will likely be the single most important factor determining how well you do at investing.<br />
<br />
120. A money manager’s amount of experience doesn’t tell you much. You can underperform the market for an entire career. Many have.<br />
<br />
121. A hedge fund once described its edge by stating, “We don’t own one Apple share. Every hedge fund owns Apple.” This type of simple, contrarian thinking is worth its weight in gold in investing.<br />
<br />
122. Take two investors. One is a rocket scientist from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who aced all kinds of IQ testand can recite π out to 50 decimal places. He trades several times a week, tapping his intellect in an attempt to outsmart the market by jumping in and out when he’s determined it’s right. The other is a country bumpkin who didn’t even attend junior college. He saves and invests every month in a low-cost fund tracking a broad market index – like the SPDR STI ETF (SGX: ES3), which tracks the Straits Times Index – come hell or high water. He doesn’t care about beating the market. He just wants it to be his faithful companion. Who’s going to do better in the long run? Chances are it’d be the country bumpkin. “Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with a 130 IQ,” Warren Buffett says. Successful investors know their limitations, keep cool, and act with discipline. You can’t measure that.Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-91570229907208095902014-12-26T07:26:00.003-08:002014-12-26T07:26:54.021-08:00Synthetic Covered Calls Strategy<b><u>Basic Covered Call Strategy</u></b><br />
<br />
An option buddy of mine recently provided this strategy for me to do in the long term, for passive income.<br />
<br />
All option traders know what is covered calls. You own a particular stock, you then sell calls against this stock that you own, at a strike price that you are happy to sell your stock<br />
<br />
For example, Disney stock (DIS)is at $95 right.<br />
so if I have 100 stocks of DIS at $95 now (option traders will always sell puts to get a stock instead of outright purchase)<br />
<br />
I will be able to sell covered calls, for example at $105 strike price.<br />
<br />
There would be no margin required by my brokers, since I own the stock. If the Call get exercised (meaning DIS price goes above $105), I would be happy that my stocks get sold for $105.<br />
If the call does not get exercised (DIS stays below $105 by expiry date), then I would keep the premium from the sales of the call.<br />
<br />
My favourite is to sell options that are 45 days to expiry, and to close them at a profit then when it is around 30 days to expiry. If it touches my strike price, then I leave it to get exercised.<br />
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_________________________________________<br />
<br />
<b><u>Synthetic Covered Calls </u></b><br />
<br />
Instead of owning DIS at $95 outright and selling covered calls, another more efficient way is to BUY a very long term Call, the furthest dated call that you can find, for DIS At-The-Money Call.<br />
<br />
For example, right now the furthest is 20th Jan 2017, $95 Strike price (ATM Call) for $13.20<br />
<br />
Buying it is a synthetic way of owning 100 stocks of DIS at $95, till the date of 20th Jan 2017.<br />
<br />
Then following covered call strategy, I will sell short term calls AGAINST my bought call.<br />
The calls I sold would be short term, probably same as my covered call strategy, of 45days and renewing (closing old one and opening new 45days) it every 2 weeks.<br />
I would be selling calls that is 1-2 strike prices away from ATM price.<br />
<br />
So in essential, it is buying a long term call, and selling short term calls against it.<br />
<br />
If DIS price moves up, your Long term Call would be appreciating in value as well. You may lose a bit on your short term calls, but you would be closing it and opening a new call when you renew, and would generate a net profits.<br />
If DIS price moves down, you are still gaining more on time decay on the short term calls, than the losses from your long term call.<br />
<br />
Its just like what the banks are doing, borrowing money short-term from deposits and lending it out long term.....<br />
<br />
Let me know if you have done this, I shall be trying this strategy soon on DIS when I freed up some capital =)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-44457505260271810192014-12-16T05:59:00.000-08:002014-12-16T05:59:13.077-08:00Review of Dough.com - Meet the Traderswww.dough.com<br />
<br />
A few months ago, I was reading plenty of options websites and blogs, and got introduced by a fellow option trader to www.dough.com.<br />
<br />
I find it exceptionally helpful for newbies to start on dough.com, to watch all the videos and understand the basics of options- puts and calls.<br />
https://www.dough.com/#about<br />
<br />
dough.com is a portal by an American brokerage, TD Ameritrade (Or their more public brand, ThinkOrSwim), to introduce option trading.<br />
One of the key feature about dough is that there is a team of option traders, with varying risk appetite and experience, blasting out their daily trades for all to follow.<br />
<br />
Although you can only follow their exact trades if you have an American account with the brokerage, the platform does broadcast all the traders' trades immediately.<br />
You can see different traders with their different strategies.<br />
<br />
This link is the direct link to the traders' pages<br />
<a href="https://beta.dough.com/demo#/followPage">https://beta.dough.com/demo#/followPage</a><br />
<br />
There are 15 traders, and you can watch all their videos, introducing themselves, their experiences in finances and their current day jobs. You can watch their videos at this link here<br />
<a href="https://www.dough.com/#traders">https://www.dough.com/#traders</a><br />
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For those who are more expeienced, please do give feedbacks on those strategies<br />
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<br />
Scott-<br />
Co-founder of ThinkOrSwim<br />
Age 50, with over 20 years of trading experience<br />
Trading Level - Expert, with account size classified as Large<br />
<br />
He likes to sell ATM (at the money) calls of technology stocks and SPY (S&P ETF) with only 1 week to expiration.<br />
My guess is that he is exploiting the rapid time decay, the steepest decline in value of the options for ATM occurs at the last week of options.<br />
The profits can be staggering, as I have seen him sold $2 - $4 options that rear him good profits in a week.<br />
Unfortunately, because the calls are so ATM, the losses can be huge too.<br />
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<br />
TP- (The Math Guy)<br />
A mathematical guy, he looks at odds. a lot.<br />
Age 49, with over 20 years of trading experience<br />
Trading Level - Expert, with account size classified as Large<br />
<br />
He looks at odds, and like to sell options with high IVs (due to time sensitive events) and high daily time decay. When the IV drops and the price of the options come down, he would close the trade to lock in profits and cut away the market risks.<br />
<br />
Very systematic and technical.<br />
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<br />
Kristi (The Boss)<br />
She runs tastytrade.com and dough.com, a career woman.<br />
Age 45, with 10 years of trading experience<br />
Trading Level - Intermediate with Account Size Medium<br />
<br />
She looks at options that are relatively cheap (especially when you compared to the options that Scott trades) and easier for newbie to trade. Unfortunately, some of her choice trades are in relatively illiquid stocks, hence you may not be able to follow at her same price. Also, it is relatively difficult to close the trade at your prefer prices later due to illiquidity.<br />
I like her, because, she possess the stability and cautious trading mentaility of a woman.<br />
Which I sorely lack. I've been looking at her trades for a long time and although her trade earn less than the higher risk-return, she is willing to hold stocks or positions if her option turn against her.<br />
Not recommended though, for those who just want to trade options and refuses to hold positions.<br />
And for higher risk types, do see her trades to be more calm....<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/static.dough.com/trader/c5f55658f06e0caf0537317793b9e1175ba7a177.jpg?1412268266" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/static.dough.com/trader/c5f55658f06e0caf0537317793b9e1175ba7a177.jpg?1412268266" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Robyn (Full time trader for the past 5 years)<br />
She is the latest to join dough.com<br />
Age 51, with 10 years of trading experience<br />
Trading Level - Advanced with Account Size Large<br />
<br />
I would confess that I followed her in the beginning because she is woman, and I really respect woman traders for all the good attributes they have for trading.<br />
She does earning plays a lot, and typically has many trades that ends in 1 or 2 days, taking profit and risk of the table.<br />
Unfortunately, most of her trades are done at the last hour of the market, which is like 4am in Singapore time. I can only read and check her trades in the day.<br />
And she trade the most of all the traders that I am keeping track of.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/static.dough.com/trader/7ae37edd913e5e419078de2c6ec4e65ef169dc93.png?1392242153" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/static.dough.com/trader/7ae37edd913e5e419078de2c6ec4e65ef169dc93.png?1392242153" /></a></div>
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<br />
Tony (The Entrepreneur)<br />
a loud-mouthed businessman, also advising Katie (another dough trader)<br />
Age 46, with 10 years of trading experience<br />
Trading Level - Expert with Account Size Large<br />
<br />
I used to read his trades a lot, because they are so entertaining. He would explain a lot on his calls, and make many funny comments on how his trades go wrong, or profit..<br />
Unfortunately, in an irony way, I have started to ignore his trades as I find him to be too close to my characters- risk-takers and taking trading as a game. (I am trying to see trading as a career, not a game)<br />
Nonetheless, he is an experienced trader, but do take note, like Scott, his trades are on expensive options as well.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/static.dough.com/bob-store/assets/traders/tom.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/static.dough.com/bob-store/assets/traders/tom.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br />
Tom<br />
The leader of the traders, founded ThinkOrSwim, dough.com and tastytrade.com<br />
Age 56, with 30 years of trading experience<br />
Trading Level - Expert with Account Size Large<br />
<br />
Tom is the only guy in dough.com that you cannot follow publicly. You need to subscribe to follow Tom, as he is the most experienced and most senior of them all.<br />
For those who watched the last segment of the videos in dough.com (or tastytrade.com), he is the host who interviewed many of the top traders in America. To subscribe, it costs about $29.90 for every 30 days. Since I am reading all the trades to understand more, I have not paid money to subscribe, so I cannot comment on his trades.... but....<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/static.dough.com/trader/82052bcb24d7e939d6e96c8f711a0cfbe946b7a7.jpg?1412634156" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/static.dough.com/trader/82052bcb24d7e939d6e96c8f711a0cfbe946b7a7.jpg?1412634156" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Tom's Team!<br />
Tom has a research team, who also place trades on dough.com for us to follow.<br />
Since it is Tom's team, I expect the workings of the team to be similar to what Tom himself may trade. (though on the other hand, he can just let his team experiment and learn from mistakes)<br />
In any cases, I have read through Tom's team's trades for the past few months, generally a mix of medium risks to low risks, but as it is a team of different men, I have yet to see a significant pattern. It is on my list of traders, simply because it is Tom's.<br />
<br />
<br />
There you go, the few traders on dough.com that I have been reading their trades for the past few months.<br />
Actually there are many other traders, such as Mel, Katie, Alex, Woody, David, Case, Jeff...<br />
but within these few months, I decided to follow and read the trades of the traders above, just to observe first.<br />
<br />
For those who are interested, please let me know what are your observations and understanding.<br />
Share in comments please!Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-48245342828049484932014-12-01T08:27:00.000-08:002014-12-01T08:27:30.353-08:00Dash giving free $5 for you to spend just for signing up their app!<br />
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<a href="http://www.dash.com.sg/assets/incentive/incentive-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.dash.com.sg/assets/incentive/incentive-2.jpg" height="320" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br />
Get $5 cash now, just by signing on to DASH app.<br />
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<br />
<a href="http://www.dash.com.sg/dash-for-cash.html?uniqueKey=SU5KGRDVJA391X8E">http://www.dash.com.sg/dash-for-cash.html?uniqueKey=SU5KGRDVJA391X8E</a><br />
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You can just click on the above link, sign up and you can get $5 cash to spend anyway you like it.</div>
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In case you have not heard of Dash, it is an app designed by Standard Chartered Bank and Singtel to have an e-Wallet in your phone. Had dinner with friends and want to split the bill? Use Dash. Want to buy a koi bubble tea? Use dash. Transfer a few dollars to a friend immediately? Just use Dash...</div>
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Beside this free $5, they are having a series of promotions for Dash.</div>
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Big fans of Bubble tea? Every 3 Koi will get u $1 cashback.</div>
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Watson shopping? Beside the discounts and sales in watson, there is an additional 10% discount on all watson purchases if you use the Dash app to pay.</div>
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This is the good deal that I had been waiting for... there are many daily products that I love to get from watson coz its so much cheaper than in other shops....</div>
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Happy Shopping!</div>
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Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-37927278681653955052014-11-23T21:53:00.001-08:002014-11-23T21:53:08.799-08:00Amazing trading blogs to read nowFirst of all, the regular blog that I blog a lot more frequently.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.wiseoftheday.blogspot.com/">www.wiseoftheday.blogspot.com</a><br />
Full of non-trading stuff, funny and nonsense articles...<br />
Its a blog I started to share interesting stuff that will make us laugh and ponder...<br />
The updates are much more frequent there!<br />
<br />
<br />
These are the blogs that I read regularly.<br />
<br />
<u>For Options Trading</u><br />
<a href="http://wilddreamsinoptionsselling.blogspot.sg/">http://wilddreamsinoptionsselling.blogspot.sg/</a><br />
By wild-dreams<br />
<br />
He has a successful record in trading options on S&P futures (mini ES).<br />
Recently he started venturing into commodities options, such as crude oil, soyabeans etc.<br />
Good to know his entry points.<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://theoptionsjourney.blogspot.sg/">http://theoptionsjourney.blogspot.sg/</a><br />
By Tony.<br />
<br />
He deal with options in Nikkei N225 and KOSPI K200.<br />
The good thing about this blog is that whenever his trade goes wrong, you can see how he attempt to repair and salvage the trades to reduce his losses. All traders will hit some losses, instead of plain Stop - Loss, it is good to repair the trade, sometimes in advance.<br />
<br />
<br />
Cillin Trading Journal<br />
<a href="http://cillinsg.blogspot.sg/">http://cillinsg.blogspot.sg/</a><br />
<br />
Journal of a trader who trades from US Dollar Index, to commodities, to equity indices to forex.<br />
He has many charts and analysis. My favourites are his COT (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commitments_of_Traders" style="background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #0b0080; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px; text-decoration: none;" title="Commitments of Traders">Commitments of Traders</a>)<br />
COT is a good guide to understand if you are dealing with futures in your trade. Find out how the big boys and the commercials are handling the commodities supply and demand swings.<br />
<h2 style="background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom-color: rgb(170, 170, 170); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; font-family: 'Linux Libertine', Georgia, Times, serif; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.3; margin: 1em 0px 0.25em; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px;">
<span class="mw-headline" id="The_Weekly_COT_Report">The Weekly COT Report</span></h2>
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The weekly report details trader positions in most of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_contract" style="background: none; color: #0b0080; text-decoration: none;" title="Futures contract">futures contract</a> markets in the United States. Data for the report is required by the CFTC from traders in markets that have 20 or more traders holding positions large enough to meet the reporting level established by the CFTC for each of those markets.<sup style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 1;">1</sup> These data are gathered from schedules electronically submitted each week to the CFTC by market participants listing their position in any market for which they meet the reporting criteria.</div>
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The report provides a breakdown of aggregate positions held by three different types of traders: “commercial traders,” “non-commercial traders” and “nonreportable.” “Commercial traders” are sometimes called “hedgers”, “non-commercial traders” are sometimes known as “large speculators,” and the “nonreportable” group is sometimes called “small speculators.”</div>
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For stocks analysis blogs, I recommend these 2 for American stocks.</div>
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<a href="http://www.seekingalpha.com/" style="background-color: transparent;">http://www.seekingalpha.com</a></div>
I also love Seeking Alpha for its stock recommendation and outlooks.<br />
For example this article on Dividend growth investing<br />
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2704595-dividend-growth-investing-total-return-and-indexing-revisited<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.stockta.com/">http://www.stockta.com/</a><br />
And StocksTA for TA analyst on stocks. I use if I have to buy USA stocks to sell covered calls. (astonishing I kept getting assigned on calls, and I had to sell covered puts)<br />
<br />
<br />
And for those who loves Singapore IPOs,<br />
<a href="http://www.singapore-ipos.blogspot.sg/">http://www.singapore-ipos.blogspot.sg/</a><div>
This guy is awesome, he will provide a wonderful write up on any IPO that is getting listed in Singapore, and give a thoughtful analysis and the statistics for the IPO.</div>
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Whenever there is a new IPO coming, I will rush to his website for the latest read.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /><b>For all trading, I highly recommend using Interactive Brokers.</b></div>
Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-60102004687562175382014-11-17T00:28:00.003-08:002014-11-17T00:39:06.106-08:00How to test for Fake Silver? How to test for Fake gold?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.silver.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Fake-Gold_04.min_.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.silver.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Fake-Gold_04.min_.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
I took this graphic from www.silver.com<br />
Pretty informative.<br />
Great to know how to test for real silver, or how to test for real gold.<br />
Happy Buying!<br />
<br />Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-41939220518105629262014-11-03T00:34:00.000-08:002014-11-03T00:34:01.686-08:00Book Summary- Trading Options at Expiration<h1 class="a-size-large a-spacing-none" id="title" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 21px !important; line-height: 1.3 !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;">
<span class="a-size-large" id="productTitle" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.3 !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;">Trading Options at Expiration: Strategies and Models for Winning the Endgame </span></h1>
Jeff Augent<div>
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<a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B001UID8MI/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B001UID8MI&linkCode=as2&tag=wealninj-20&linkId=C4ULN2IFTKWV4CLM"><img border="0" src="http://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&ASIN=B001UID8MI&Format=_SL110_&ID=AsinImage&MarketPlace=US&ServiceVersion=20070822&WS=1&tag=wealninj-20" height="200" width="136" /></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=wealninj-20&l=as2&o=1&a=B001UID8MI" height="1" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" width="1" />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Core Points:-</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Short straddles later on expiration day, when pinning is evident (such as it moved to 1 new strike and back to the old strike)</span><br />
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Long straddles during midday IV stability window (after 1030am)</div>
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Ratio trades are best to hedge against both sides 1:3, long/short OTM calls</div>
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Can also do evening before expiration days.</div>
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<strong style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;">Reasons to trade on Expiration Day- Chapter 1</span></strong><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Expiration trading is a mathematical game distinctly different from stock trading</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">- reduced risk/return profile</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">- limited market exposure</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">- extremely high returns on a percentage basis</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">- directional neutral strategy</span><br />
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<strong style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">1) Implied Volatility Collapse</strong><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">- IV drop a lot on expiration, price distortions as large as 30% on Thurs and 100% on expiration Friday for ATM options</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Friday Market opens- IV is stable or rising from open till 11:00. Volatility drops from 30% to 20%, where it is stable till 14:00. Then a sharp steady decline in IV till close.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Long positions designed to profit from underlying price changes are best structured after IV stabilises early in the day</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Conversely , traders who structure early short positions often find that midday price changes can be costly, especially if IV temporarily rises.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Simple short positions designed to benefit from IV collapse perform best late in the day, after stock stabilises near a strike price and most large positions have been unwound. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">IV collapse can become more dramatic when unusual events distort the profile (earnings, etc)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">GOOG - $538</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Long $530 calls, and short $540 calls ratio 1:3</span><br />
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<strong style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">2) Strike Prices Effect</strong><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">- Stock prices hover around strike prices (pinning effect), can gauge using Open interest, and distance to nearby strikes.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">pinning behavior due to delta hedging large numbers of long positions.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">OR it jump crosses many strike prices and pin at later strike prices</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">stock prices hover around strike prices as large institutional investors unwind complex positions ahead of expiration.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Stocks such as AAPL and MA that often fail to close near a strike price, but have a very high strike cross frequencies are excellent candidates for certain types of expiration day trades such as long straddles. (pg 38)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Pinning - (page 41) rarely mentioned result of pinning is tendency of some stocks to exhibit unusually large price changes on Monday following expiration.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Tendency can be exploited by purchasing long straddles just a few minutes before expiration on stocks that close expiration Friday pinned to a strike price.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Statistically speaking, these straddles generate disproportionately large returns because they are mispriced.</span><br />
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<strong style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">3) Time Decay</strong><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">- time decay significantly on Thurs before Expiration Friday (31.3% remaining time), and the Friday 1 week before Expiration Friday (32.8%)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Market adjust to the overnight time decay in the day next morning.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Conservative may create short positions in morning and close them at end of trading session. (pg44) This is best on the Friday preceding expiration week, compensation price change of 19%. However market response is not 100% efficient. The full amount of intersession loss is often not realised unless the trade is left on until the next open.</span><br />
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<strong style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;">Sample Trade (page 46)</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Stock $123</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">10 Long $120 calls </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">30 Short $125 calls</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">If stock consistent, generate 95% profit.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">If stock climb $2, still profit (52%) due to long trades. Furthermore if stock pinning effect holds and stock pins to $125, positions can be held till expiration ($125 calls expire worthless)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Downside- stock decline rapidly the next day. Unlikely, even if stock open down 10%, the long side can still retain half its values, and can close with just a small loss. Risk/Return very favourable.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">The bigger risk is stocks rallied beyond the upper strike price, and way beyond the long hedge.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Conservative traders (including the author) can structure this trade on Expiration Friday after market opens, as the profit potential is enormous and risk is limited to very moderate time decay.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">a) simplest is to purchase long straddles on stocks with a history of large expiration day price changes</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">executed at point of symmetry when stock crosses a strike price during midday flat IV window.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Open Interest and Option volume at various strikes can indicate price movement </span><br />
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<strong style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;">Chapter 2- Finding out the population statistically more probable for our day trades.</span></strong><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">The population of stock, must be heavily traded, with large open interests.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">a) AAPL, APA, DNA, DVN, FDX, GOOG, GS, IBM, LMT, MA, MON, RIG, RIMM, SHLD, X</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">b) AAPL, GOOG, GS, MA, RIMM</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">These (a) stocks and (b) stocks are 73% and 125% mor e likely than expected to close expiration within $0.20 of a strike price.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Table 2.2 Summary Data for 5 stocks (12 expirations)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Comparing the number of minutes that contains a strike price cross to the number of minutes where each stock traded more than $1 from a strike (The final column lists the number of expirations within $0.30 of a strike)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Ticker Minutes >$1 from strike Strike Crosses Ratio Expirations <$0.30 from Strike</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">AAPL 2847 147 19.37 2</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">GOOG 2740 498 5.50 4</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">GS 2845 285 9.98 2</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">MA 3100 306 10.13 1</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">RIMM 1952 223 8.75 3</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">AAPL is statistically 19 times more likely to trade $1 ITM than to cross a strike while GOOG is only 5.5</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Hence Short Straddles on GOOG, and Long straddles on AAPL</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">MA has high Strike crosses (306), and only 1 expiration <$0.30 for 1 year. In percentage term, 6.6% of expiration day minutes involved a strike cross for MA. MA has more long straddles.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">GOOG has high IV after earnings, good for short positions. Ratio trades as well as short straddles, with GOOG having pinning effects.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">AAPL- most strike crosses occure earlier in the dayy when the stock is more active, long straddles are often a profitable trade. 38% and 76% occurred before 12:00 and 14:00.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">In most cases, holding these trades beyond 14:00 will reduce or eliminate all profits.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">More than 50% profit is commonly</span><br />
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px; text-decoration: underline;">Evening</span><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;"> </span><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px; text-decoration: underline;">before</span><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;"> </span><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px; text-decoration: underline;">Expiration</span><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;"> </span><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px; text-decoration: underline;">Day</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Ratio trade 1:2 or 1:3 depends. Best to take advantage of time decay that is heavily on Thurs.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Another option is long call/short call both OTM</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Stock-$164, long $165/ short $170 (1:3)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Best to close on Friday evening and restructure new trades meant for Expiration Day Trading.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Earnings declaration</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Long straddle and long strangle don't work due to efficiency of market and large stock movement needed.</span><br />
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<strong style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;">Chapter 3- Ratio trade, long, short straddle</span></strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px; text-decoration: underline;">Ratio trade on Expiration Friday</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">1 long vs 3 short (1:3 ratios not fix, adjust based on as delta neutral as possible)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">As both sides can generate significant profit, it is not meaningful to think of it either as a long position hedged against downward spikes, or short positions hedge with long options. Both are correct.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">If it goes in short direction, the decline in prices due to IV collapse more than offset the increase in values of the shorts. (unless it goes down in very large amount)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">If it goes in long directions, the long positions appreciate in value.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Cost of trade is minimal, as short positions pay for the long positions.</span><br />
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px; text-decoration: underline;">Long straddle</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">-most profitable when stocks in constant motion (page 134)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">-after a long calm period, when stocks display high level of activities (page 134)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">- move from 1 strike price to another strike price</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">long straddle after 1030am, when IV stabilise. (page 132)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Timing very important as initiating a long trade at the open or very late in the day can be dangerous because both are commonly characterised by rapidly falling implied volatility. In additional, when a stock trades near a strike price, the closing hour is often distorted by unusually small price changes</span><br />
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px; text-decoration: underline;">Short straddle</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">- A short position is an excellent choice whenever a stock climbs from 1 strike to another late on expiration Friday, crosses the new strike, then falls back and stabilises (page 137)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Long straddle during mid day stability window when IV was relatively steady and stock was active</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">short straddle late in the day after the stock had gravitated to strike price, and IV was collapsing.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'Droid Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.9999942779541px;">Strike price effects drove the jump from from $210 to $220 (long straddle) then it sticks to $220 (short straddle)</span><br />
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<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&OneJS=1&Operation=GetAdHtml&MarketPlace=US&source=ac&ref=tf_til&ad_type=product_link&tracking_id=wealninj-20&marketplace=amazon&region=US&placement=B001UID8MI&asins=B001UID8MI&linkId=UAVD5ZPD6TKYLQ6M&show_border=true&link_opens_in_new_window=true" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;">
</iframe>Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-86445328282413150962014-10-26T22:30:00.002-07:002014-10-27T00:20:07.882-07:00Book Summary of "Profiting with Iron Condor Options"Iron Condor is the mathematically most efficient way of utilising your capital in the option markets. Most efficient does not mean it is most profitable. Most option traders make the mistakes of stuff all the capital in options as much as possible, thinking that they only make money when they are in the market.<br />
<br />
They couldn't be more wrong.<br />
<br />
Choose to enter the market when it is ideal, not indulge in it anytime you want.<br />
This book taught me to look out for ways to effectively profits from Iron Condor, and to exit the market as soon as possible, and wait for another entry to set up the Iron Condor.<br />
<br />
A great book. I would be referring to it as much as possible.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
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<b><u>Profiting with Iron Condor Options</u></b><br />
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Author-- Michael Hanania Benklifa</div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.428571em;">Time Decay - Theta</span></div>
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Effect of a chance in price of underlying security - Delta<br />
Acceleration - Gamma<br />
Volatility - Vega</div>
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We are trading time.<br />
ATM options decays differently than OTM</div>
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ATM decay - Waterfall, it accelerates towards the end.<br />
OTM decay- value drops dramatically then levels off closer to expiration (because no much value to lose near the end)<br />
Because of OTM decay, we dont hold contracts till expiration.</div>
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Dont wait till expiration. Exit as long as you have earned a decent % profit within a % length of the contract.<br />
For example, 29% of total credit with 25% of the length of contract, 71% of total credit within 50% of length.<br />
Out of Market means u are not exposed to market risk.<br />
"Dont push your luck"</div>
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<strong style="line-height: 1.428571em;">Volatility</strong><br />
IV divided by 16 times square root of number of days = how much the price will move for 1 Standard Deviation (68%)</div>
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Options are hedges, like puts bought to hedge against stocks portfolio hence buyers may overpaid for them, that is why IV higher than historical volatility (Volatility Gap)</div>
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Iron condors best on stocks with large number of strikes, reasonably high priced, high liquidity in OI & volume, price not dramatically affected by specific news.<br />
Best- SPX, NDX, RUT, all European options (SPY is american option)</div>
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<strong style="line-height: 1.428571em;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;">Placing a Trade</span></strong><br />
Trade works best when it is set up as a reaction to the market.<br />
Only time when u do not react to market conditions is when u first enter the trade.<br />
You want an iron condor that is<br />
(1) range bound (2) long enough (3) profits</div>
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1) Time<br />
2) Position<br />
3) Price</div>
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"Art of the Imperfect Trade" satisfy two of the three conditions is enough.<br />
"Keep one third as profit"</div>
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Sell when got spike in IV.<br />
The day after expiration has many buyers jumping back, which dampens the price.<br />
A month from expiration seems most favoured but it is too near for risk management.<br />
A condor placed the friday before the previous month's expiration, for 5-6weeks for best. 7-8weeks is also good depending on situations.</div>
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Keep a lookout for ViX spikes and if VIX prices break upper Bollinger Band.<br />
VIX ATM puts & calls should be same price. If not, it is a hint of things to come.<br />
Also if next month ATM prices are substantially higher than this month, it may indicates potential large drops in future.</div>
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<strong style="line-height: 1.428571em;">Delta</strong><br />
Delta is not symmetrical, as prices fall far faster and steeper than they climb.<br />
Strike at Delta 10 should be much further away on the put side than the call side.</div>
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<strong style="line-height: 1.428571em;">Price</strong><br />
Evaluate credit as a percentage of total margin at risk. for example, credit of $1,000 as % of margin received of $10,000.<br />
Do SPX at quarter step, 1950, 1975, 2000, as liquidity is greater there, which implies tighter bid-ask spread.<br />
Easier to balance Deltas when short strikes at these quarter strikes, as SPX has tendency to gravitate to these prices because of greater liquidity in options, futures and ETFs-: trade with the institutions, not against them.</div>
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Every $0.25 credit received for selling a SPX iron condor is abt 1% return on margin.<br />
Therefore $1 is 4%, $2 is 8%.<br />
Plan in advance what price you received, and what price to close it, to get your % return.</div>
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<strong style="line-height: 1.428571em;">Putting it together</strong><br />
Position- Delta 10 positions outside previous highs & lows. Charts not trending strongly in either directions.<br />
Price: high credit of $5 (20% of margin) volatility, which has been trending nicely, just had a 1-day spike.<br />
Time- expiration in 4-5weeks</div>
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You can only choose 2 out of 3, prioritize.<br />
Price is your first consideration. You want to capture a portion of the credit, but not all. Keeping 1/3 or 1/4 is easier than waiting long enough to capture 1/2.<br />
Then position is directed by price. If Delta 10s cannot provide the good price, you need to wait till it does (Volatility spike) or trade the farther out month. Position is NON-negotiable.<br />
-->> Time is negotiable. Time is the only constant in trading condors. Keep a "reserve" of time in your trade so that you have time to make adjustments. It allows you when to remove or adjust your trade.</div>
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<strong style="line-height: 1.428571em;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;">When enter a trade?</span></strong><br />
Trade out of opportunity (volatility), not out of necessity (time expiration).<br />
Wait for a jump in VIX, it can be a percentage term relative to previous day.<br />
Or as a break in the upper Bollinger Band on the VIX.<br />
Or standard deviation in change in prices of VIX or S&P is greater than 2 SD</div>
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1) Get a min $3 credit or greater, which is 12% return on margin.<br />
2) Delta shld be 10 or less, but never greater than 12.<br />
3) Expiration day must be no closer than 49days, if volatility take a huge jump before day 42, consider it, but prefer to trade the month farther out.<br />
4) Call short strikes shld be at least 100 to 125 points higher than current prices<br />
Put short strikes shld be at least 125 points lower.<br />
This cushion not just allow you to stay out of assignment, it allows you to adjust.<br />
5) Trade when SPX is at quarter price.<br />
6) Enter on a volatility spike day (a down day)</div>
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Sideway market - Take profit once achieve target, do not push your luck. Market do not stay sideway for too long</div>
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Uptrending mkt-<br />
Up is good, but up too fast is not good.<br />
Best to wait until a down move in mkt.<br />
Reminder that volatility is up when market goes down, but not up when market goes up.<br />
In uptrending, leave room for market to go higher. Lean on quarter prices to enter. Wait for market to finish 1 leg up to quarter price, if it can't and fall to lower quarter price, use as reference. Preference is still to enter on a down day, with spikes in volatility<br />
IV ought to be higher than HV.</div>
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<strong style="line-height: 1.428571em;">Exit is key to profit.</strong></div>
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Exit strategy that works best is to give back almost all credit. Profits of 3% in a few days is considered good.<br />
Don't stay through expiration as Gamma may burn u. When u exit u r now a buyer and choices may be against u.</div>
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Exit profits- good to set GTC profit exit price immediately after enter. Place order before market opens if its in your favour, to take advantage of amateur hour.<br />
Exit time- close expiration a month before expiration, to have a wider defensive. If you staying because market moves against you, rapid time decay is your ally.<br />
Close 2-4weeks after entering.<br />
Exit P&L Curve- take profit without hesitation. Disappointment in less profit is better than disappointment in losses.<br />
Exit Capital- preserve capital. If lose money, exit at break even. Lots of small gains and an occasional loss is key to success.</div>
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Can sell condors 2-3 days before holidays and long weekends.<br />
Buy back to close right before the weekend, when Theta is discounted.<br />
Prices decline abt midday on Friday or day prior to holiday, & drop quickly in final few minutes.</div>
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Why not close after hols? Remember events during hols can ruin your positions too. Berlin wall.</div>
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Downtrend days<br />
Good to setup due to spike in VIX.<br />
First & last hours are unstable and strong reversals in 1st hour are not unusual. Can just take profit and run. Or enter at this point of great uncertainty, for the VIX</div>
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Sometimes VIX continue to climb after u enter, make ur positions in losses.<br />
U close the side that is farther, open a newer, nearer one for extra credits.<br />
Can use credits to shift other side.<br />
Can exit the trade too in a small loss or break even to open a new one another time.</div>
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Warning, if SPX reach 50 points near to 1 of your side, better adjust.</div>
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Another sign is when delta is more than 30.</div>
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A good trade</div>
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1) Making sure condor was large</div>
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2) trading at quarter strikes</div>
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3) selling 10 delta</div>
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4) making sure the initial credit was high</div>
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5) making proper adjustments to condor to protect principal</div>
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Adjustment rules</div>
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1) easier to adjust in a down market as you get more credits for rolling down the call credit spreads</div>
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2) harder to adjust in an up market because you do not get much for rolling up the put credit spread and you bring the position closer to your downside risk</div>
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3) trade the math, don't let delta go over 25 to 30</div>
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4) when possible, adjust when the market is moving in the opposite direction intraday. Adjust the puts when the market rallies, or adjust the calls when the market dips.</div>
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5) trade only what is in front of you, and not what you or anybody else thinks that the market will do.</div>
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6) if you must speculate, assume worst-case, not the best-case scenario</div>
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7) if you must adjust, consider getting out at breakeven at the first chance available</div>
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8) you can always put in a new trade with better strikes</div>
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Manage your risk, take the loss, reduce your exposure when necessary.</div>
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Wing buyback only if you have a strong conviction that the market will reverse direction</div>
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="line-height: 1.428571em;">Day Trade before Earnings Day</strong></span></div>
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IV 1st month / IV 2nd month</div>
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IV May / IV June (for example)</div>
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If this Sort Value is more than 1, then there is a skew worth speculating.</div>
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Use the same principles to open iron condors, on the options that are going to expire soon.</div>
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Seek Deltas below 10, but you can afford to be more aggressive with the call sides.</div>
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Look to close the positions right at the 1st hour, take profits.</div>
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Look at the ATM calls, what is the price, add to the current price of stock, to know that is the expected price speculators expect the stock to rise to.</div>
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Same for ATM puts, but minus instead.</div>
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Trade with delta 10, get credits, quit on the day earnings or the NEWS are announced, immediately asap.</div>
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You may lose some trades, win most.</div>
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Most trades will win due to the shrinking of the volatility. However, keep your trade small as inevitable, some iron condor will fail.</div>
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</iframe>Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-45072061729704337642014-10-23T22:18:00.002-07:002014-10-27T00:18:46.017-07:00Book Summary of "Get Rich With Options" By Lee LowellThis is the first book I read that let me understand more about options.<br />
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It is not technical, and not dry, allows me to get interested in options, before I took on more technical books that explains more on options, the greeks involved.<br />
I have read a lot of books, and summarised them in my notepad.. will slowly blog them out to share with anyone who are interested in option trading as an income generating strategy.<br />
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Hope this Summary helps anyone who is interested!<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Get Rich with Options - Lee Lowell</span></b></h2>
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Calls - the right to buy at a strike price, before expiry date</div>
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Puts - the right to sell at a strike price, before expiry date</div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.428571em;">Option calculator of delta, option pricing</span></div>
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<a data-mce-href="http://www.ivolatility.co" href="http://www.ivolatility.co/" shape="rect" style="border: 0px; color: #047ac6; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">www.ivolatility.co</a><a data-mce-href="http://www.ivolatility.com" href="http://www.ivolatility.com/" shape="rect" style="border: 0px; color: #047ac6; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">m</a></div>
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Delta- </div>
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the percentage relationship of security price with your option price</div>
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Example 0.60- When the underlying security moves up $1, your option price moves up 0.60</div>
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Volatility</div>
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HV - Historical Volatility (based on historical) and IV Implied Volatility (forward looking)</div>
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The higher the volatility, the higher option price is</div>
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The lower the volatiltiy, the lower option price is</div>
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Buy and sell at opportunate time</div>
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option price of different stocks may varies a lot due to volatility.</div>
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Reverse Skew (usually stocks)</div>
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For certain stocks, as strike prices goes down, the implied volatility goes up, due to fear factor of downside moves, this is known as reverse skew. People start paying higher price for downside protection, which inflates option prices, which in turn heats up IV numbers.</div>
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Forward skew</div>
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As strike prices goes up, IV goes up. Typical for soybean market, especially during summer growing months.</div>
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Soybeans trae wtih IV levels getting higher as you move up in strike prices. As dry summers can produce potential droughts and a reduced supply of soybeans, investors tend to favour buying upside protection, which causes more interest in upside strikes.</div>
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Smiling Skew</div>
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Incorporates a reverse skew and a forward skew</div>
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A forward skew develops when the higher-strike options have an increasing large IV. ATM is usually at bottom of the IV curve</div>
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Spread - buying 1 option and selling 1 to hedge</div>
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1) hedging keep initial cost down and allow more trades</div>
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2) spreads can offset an option purchase a lower IV with a sale of option at higher IV. - getting the "volatility edge"</div>
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="line-height: 1.428571em;">Strategy 1- Buying DITM options on stocks / indexes</strong></span></div>
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Idea- to spend only 50% or less of the stock costs, to control the same amount of stock, using options, and enjoy close to the same price movement (hence to seek delta > 0.9), and with limited losses.</div>
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To close this position once profitable, to not hold till the expiry.</div>
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1) Choose the deepest DITM option, that has a delta of at least 0.9 and above</div>
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2) Choose the lowest strike price possible.</div>
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3) If you have choices, try to choose the one with the nearest breakeven price (strike price + premium)</div>
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End-results</div>
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1) Expire worthless</div>
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2) Sell options at any time</div>
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3) Roll your options (sell and then buy a new DITM option</div>
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4) Exercise the call options and own the assets</div>
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Benefits-</div>
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1) Lower up-front cost</div>
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2) Less Capital at risk</div>
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3) Maximum movement- high delta</div>
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4) Higher ROI</div>
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5) With less capital and lower cost, you can divert funds to other low risks assets</div>
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Drawbacks</div>
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1) No dividends nor voting rights</div>
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2) Expiry dates</div>
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="line-height: 1.428571em;">Strategy 2- Get paid to buy stocks "naked put selling"</strong></span></div>
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Idea- To own a stock at a lower price than current market price, but instead of waiting for prices to drop and buy, sell naked put options for an income. If prices drop below your targeted price, you would be forced to execute but that is alright as you want to own the stock anyway.</div>
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<em style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><strong style="line-height: 1.428571em;">Do not sell naked put options on stocks that you don't want to potentially own.</strong></em></div>
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Good to go in when valued stocks get hammered down, the IV will make put options even more expensive.</div>
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1) Choose a stock that you like to own, potentially for long term.</div>
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2) Choose a lower price than its current price, that you would think is a bargain</div>
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3) Sell a put option</div>
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4) Collect income most of the time, and be prepared to execute it if needed</div>
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Margin requirements = [(20% of underlying price) + (credit received) - (amt strike price is OTM)] x 100</div>
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End-results</div>
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1) Expire worthless</div>
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2) Own stocks that you want to own, but carries risks that stocks plunge, which would affect you anyway if you outright own the stock</div>
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="line-height: 1.428571em;">Strategy 3- (Most Favourite of Lowell) Credit Spread (also taught in Daniel Loh)</strong></span></div>
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Sell 1 option and buy the less expensive options for credit</div>
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Bull Put Spread</div>
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Bear Call Spread</div>
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Idea- instead of choosing the price direction where you predict it will go, choose the direction you predict it will not go. This will give you extra allowance. As long as as price does not go too wrong, you benefit due to Time Decay.</div>
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1) Sell and buy nearest pair of OTM put options when you think the security is bullish.</div>
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2) Sell and buy nearest pair of OTM call options when you think the security is bearish.</div>
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3) Sell the more expensive, and buy the cheaper options, for positive credits into your account. (hence credit spread)</div>
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4) Debit spread is when you sell the cheaper option, do it only when you are very confident of the directional bias, meant for punting, not a credit spread earning.</div>
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5) Wait for time decay or close for profits</div>
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Best trades- majority of your trades.</div>
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Daniel Loh focusing on this strategy</div>
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="line-height: 1.428571em;">Strategy #4- Selling covered calls</strong></span></div>
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Idea- If you own a stock, sell covered calls on your own stocks at a higher price</div>
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1) Option premiums allow you to earn some income. higher probability</div>
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2) If you had to exercise the options, take it as an opportunity to realise your gains.</div>
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3) Same golden rule, whenever an option moves swiftly in your favour, usually good idea to buy back the position and take profits.</div>
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<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.428571em; text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="line-height: 1.428571em;">Strategy Bonus- Ratio Option Spreads- More risky, more rewards, need more experience</strong></span></div>
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Idea- buy 1 expensive OTM options and selling multiple less expensive OTM options to hedge</div>
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Allows you to take advantage of a directional bias without incurring an initial debit or having to speculate on low probability OTM option.</div>
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Even if all expires, you keep money. As it involves selling naked options, there is a low chance but high risks of losing a lot.</div>
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1) buying an OTM option, and selling multiple, less-expensive, farther OTM options against it in 1 single spread trade</div>
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2) the multiple sales would provide extra credit on your 1 expensive option purchase</div>
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3) You will get credits if all options expire worthless</div>
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4) Best case scenario- Price moves towards the middle of the range you bought, giving your bought options profits, and making your sold options worthless</div>
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5) Selling put ratio spread is better than call ratio spread, as security can only go to zero, but can rise to infinity. However, some call ratio spreads are worth it</div>
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Smiling Skew - optimal as higher IV as you move away from ATM makes option pricing more expensive and worthwhile to sell.</div>
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<strong style="line-height: 1.428571em;"><em style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Example- Call ratio spread on soyabeans</em></strong></div>
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Soyabean options great to trade at summer months, just in spring- Soybean forward skew</div>
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Nov price 604 3/4 </div>
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Buy 680 calls for 90cents</div>
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Sell 5 Nov 820 calls for 21 cents each</div>
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Total credit $1.40</div>
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if soyabeans move up to 680 - 820, you gain in bought calls of 680, but your sold options of 820 can expire worthless. Good returns</div>
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Be mindful of StopLoss, as what you do not like may still happen. SL and stay Sharp</div>
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<strong style="line-height: 1.428571em;">Stock / Indexes Call Ratio Spreads</strong></div>
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Indexes are reverse skew- sales of far OTM put options offset by purchase of not-so-far OTM put options -> big winner.</div>
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<em style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.428571em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Example:- Put ratio spread on 2006 DJ 11,000</em></div>
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Sell 56 7000 put options for $560, and buy 3 10,400 put options for $30</div>
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If all expire worthless, earn $530 credit</div>
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If it moves to between range of 7000 and 10,400, then you earn big profits.</div>
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if it moves below 7000, huge losses.</div>
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Unlimited Risk exposure, stay sharp with SL<br />
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</iframe>Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-39176644656918398292014-10-23T20:59:00.004-07:002014-10-23T20:59:38.041-07:00Gold- What is the costs of mining?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Nice chart showing the costs of gold. Good for gold traders, to have a economical support level for how low gold can go?</div>
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Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-55967524232296151672014-07-21T07:26:00.004-07:002014-07-21T07:26:57.147-07:00Investing in the long run - ETF<div class="quote" style="background: rgb(238, 238, 238); border: 1px dashed rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11.818181991577148px; line-height: 15.272726058959961px; margin: 5px 20px 20px; padding: 10px;">
<span class="byline" style="color: #666666; display: block; font-size: 11px; font-style: italic; margin: 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-style: normal; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Shiny Things</span> wrote:</span><br />
<blockquote cite="http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/showthread.php?p=86972738#post86972738" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
Great, thanks mate, that clears a lot of things up. Let's have a look at what we can do.<br />
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Righto, I can tell you right off the bat you're not going to be able to do that. $5k a month on $700k of cash is an 8.5% yield; you can't get that without taking some serious risk, and anyone who tells you you can is lying.<br />
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You can't get enough passive income to quit your job - but you can set yourself up to quit your job a few years down the road.<br />
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Also - you don't need to be so fixated on "passive income" and dividends. (In fact, "passive income" is always a red-flag phrase for me - I tend to hear it attached to real-estate scams and MLM organisations, so people offering me "passive income" make me run a mile in the other direction.)<br />
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Think about your total capital growth - capital gains <i style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">and</i> dividends - rather than just dividends. For example, US stocks have tripled off their lows since 2009; that's 200% in capital gains and about 10% in dividends. Nobody's been buying US stocks for passive income.<br />
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OK, these are good ideas! We can do better, though.<br />
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If you go out and get a mortgage to buy a shoebox condo somewhere, then you really won't be able to quit your job - you'll have to keep working for thirty years to service the mortgage.<br />
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Also rental yields in Singapore are deeply sh!tty: your <i style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">gross</i> yields <a href="http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Singapore/Rental-Yields" style="color: #462c75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">have a 2 or a 3 in front of them</a>, which is nowhere near your "$5,000 a month". After costs you'll be lucky to break even.<br />
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So let's rule out real estate for now. Let's look at stocks and bonds instead. (Also if you stick to stocks and bonds you don't have to deal with sleazy agents and pay the huge fees that come with buying and selling real estate. Leave real estate to the money launderers.)<br />
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So if you're somewhere between 30 and 35, you're basically exactly like me - in possession of a decent sum of cash and you want to invest it for the future (and if it happens to start throwing off <a href="http://qr.ae/YaMbf" style="color: #462c75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">fuçk-you money</a>, then that's a bonus).<br />
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You want your money to be mostly in stocks - because this is money for the long term, and nothing (except maybe owning your own business, but that involves a lot of hard work and a big slug of luck) makes long-term money more reliably than stocks.<br />
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But you want some bonds as well. Bonds are like your boring bank-account money - it doesn't go up much, it doesn't go down much, it makes you a little bit of interest in the meantime. But most importantly, if stocks have a bad year, bonds are your ammo to go in and buy some more stocks when everyone else is panicking and selling. Good companies were going cheap in 2008, and the people who had spare money to buy those good companies are the people who made the most money in the ensuing five years.<br />
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At your age, you can afford to mostly be in stocks. You've got twenty or thirty years to retirement; you can afford to take some risk. My usual ratio is "100 minus your age in stocks", which would put you 70% stocks/30% bonds. I go a bit more toward stocks (80/20), because I think bonds are expensive right now; but if you care more about income than capital growth then 70/30's a good ratio for you.<br />
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Now: how do we do that? How do we build our 70/30 portfolio?<br />
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Let's look at the "bonds" bucket first, because that's pretty easy. First things first, you don't want to just rock down to the bank and say "I would like $210k of a Bond, please", firstly because that's not quite how bonds work, and also because if you do that they'll give you the crappiest thing in their portfolio. You don't want that. Banks are not your friends.<br />
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You'll want to build your portfolio using bond ETFs. If you don't know what an ETF is - basically, it's a fund that holds lots of stocks (or bonds), so it's like a unit trust, but it trades on the stock exchange like a stock, and you can buy and sell it whenever.<br />
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Let's pick some bond funds for you.<br />
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First one, and let's put 20% of your portfolio in this, is A35, the ABF SG Bond ETF. This is a bond ETF that invests in investment-grade SGD bonds - so it's rock-solid secure, it has no currency risk, this is "safe" money. It yields about 2.25%.<br />
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With the remaining 10 percentage points of your portfolio that's going into bonds, you can afford to take a bit more risk.<br />
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Let's put 5% of the portfolio in QL2, the iShares Asia USD Credit Bond Fund. This does what it says on the tin: it invests in USD-denominated debt of Asian governments. You have some credit risk from this, but you get well compensated for it, and some (very small) currency risk too because it's in USD. It yields about 4%.<br />
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And let's put another 5% in QL3, the iShares Asia High Yield Bond Fund. This one invests in higher-yielding debt from risky issuers; you have more credit risk from this, because some of the issuers will inevitably go under, but it yields nearly 7%, so you're being well compensated for the risk.<br />
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Now, for stocks, you'll probably need to go offshore. The lineup of stock ETFs in Singapore is a bit limp unfortunately.<br />
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You'll want to put a big chunk of your money into Singapore stocks, because that's what you know best. 50% of your portfolio is a good number.<br />
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Take that money and put it into ES3, the Straits Times ETF. This ETF owns all the stocks in the Straits Times - all 30 of them - so you get instant diversification (you never have to worry about one company doing badly) and a nice dividend stream. It also yields about 2.5%, which is nice.<br />
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Then let's go offshore: let's buy you all the rest of the stocks in the world. For this one, you'll want to open up an account with Interactive Brokers, because they let you trade overseas stocks very cheaply (unfortunately they don't let you trade Singaporean stocks, or I'd use them for everything). Fund your account with the remaining 20% of your portfolio, and then buy VWRD, listed on the LSE.<br />
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VWRD is an ETF that invests in <i style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">every stock in the world</i>. This gives you exposure to global stock markets, and helps you insure against the swings and roundabouts of individual markets.<br />
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So, in summary: open up a Singapore trading account for most of your funds (for your size, I think the DBS Vickers cash-upfront account is the best bet).<br />
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Buy the following:<br />
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$140k of A35 (20%)<br />
$35k of QL2 (5%)<br />
$35k of QL3 (5%)<br />
$350k of ES3 (50%)<br />
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(Why are we buying international bond ETFs in Singapore? Because when you buy them in Singapore you don't get taxed on the dividends - and that means more cash in your pocket.)<br />
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Then open up an Interactive Brokers account for your overseas funds.<br />
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Buy the following:<br />
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$140k of VWRD (listed on the LSE) (20%)<br />
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There you go: you've got a great, balanced portfolio that yields about 3-4% and will throw off some healthy capital gains as well.<br />
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There's one more thing you'll want to do, and that's a little thing called "rebalancing".<br />
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Sounds scary, but all it means is each year (I like to do it in mid-December), you look at your portfolio, and sell or buy your funds to bring them back to their original ratios.<br />
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Let's say stocks have a great year, and ES3 goes from 50% of your portfolio to 60%. What you'll do is sell down some ES3 so that it goes back to 50% of the portfolio, and buy the other funds in proportions to bring them back to their original weightings.<br />
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(Why do this? Because it forces you to not be greedy - you sell your winners and buy the losers, and that's a winning strategy over the long term.)<br />
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That's it. It takes ten minutes a year, and then when you're done you can go to the pub and treat yourself.<br />
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Hope that helps. If you've got any more questions, or if you want me to help with executing the trades, drop me a PM.</blockquote>
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<span class="byline" style="color: #666666; display: block; font-size: 11px; font-style: italic; margin: 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/stocks-shares-indices-92/s%24700000-4734278-post87008017.html#post87008017" rel="nofollow" style="color: #462c75; float: right; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><img alt="View Post" border="0" class="inlineimg" src="http://www.hardwarezone.com.sg/img/forums/hwz/buttons/viewpost.gif" style="border: none; color: #999999; font-size: 9px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle;" title="View Post" /></a><span style="font-style: normal; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Shiny Things</span> wrote:</span><br />
<blockquote cite="http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/showthread.php?p=87008017#post87008017" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
Yep, VT is the US-listed version of VWRD (actually VT is the original, VWRD came later).<br />
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The only difference between the two is that VWRD gets slightly more favorable dividend tax treatment - dividends get taxed internally to the ETF at 15%, instead of being withheld at 30% - but generally the brokerage is a shade higher on VWRD because it's on the London stock exchange.<br />
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Both of them are on IB. You'll find VT listed on NYSEARCA; VWRD is on the LSE.</blockquote>
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<div class="quote" style="background: rgb(238, 238, 238); border: 1px dashed rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11.818181991577148px; line-height: 15.272726058959961px; margin: 5px 20px 20px; padding: 10px;">
<span class="byline" style="color: #666666; display: block; font-size: 11px; font-style: italic; margin: 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/stocks-shares-indices-92/s%24700000-4734278-post86995374.html#post86995374" rel="nofollow" style="color: #462c75; float: right; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><img alt="View Post" border="0" class="inlineimg" src="http://www.hardwarezone.com.sg/img/forums/hwz/buttons/viewpost.gif" style="border: none; color: #999999; font-size: 9px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle;" title="View Post" /></a><span style="font-style: normal; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Shiny Things</span> wrote:</span><br />
<blockquote cite="http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/showthread.php?p=86995374#post86995374" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
OK, there are a couple of good answers to this question.<br />
<br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />
Answer 1: do it all in one hit. This should be fine, unless you're doing really large amounts of any given stock; in this case, the only one I'd think twice about is ES3, and you should still be able to do that in a couple of days tops without too much market impact.<br />
<br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />
Answer 2: do it in 3-4 monthly tranches. You'd probably do this if you're worried about buying high, and want to make yourself feel a little better if you buy it and it dips 1% the next day.<br />
<br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />
I'd personally go for answer 1, though if you're doing a million bucks in a not-particularly-liquid market like Singapore you might want to think about #2 (or get me to help you with executing the orders).</blockquote>
</div>
<br />
<br />
All these taken from this thread on saving up and investing for the long term<br />
from HWZ - money mind subforum stocks shares and indices<br />
<a href="http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/stocks-shares-indices-92/s%24700000-4734278-2.html">http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/stocks-shares-indices-92/s%24700000-4734278-2.html</a>Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-54735640302110531252014-07-13T22:28:00.000-07:002014-07-13T22:28:30.901-07:00Basic Market Reactions to the major US economic reports<div align="CENTER" style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0.02in; margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Here
are the basic market reactions to the major US economic reports ...</b></span></span></span><span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">
</span></span></span>
</div>
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<dd>
<table border="1" bordercolor="#009900" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" rules="COLS" style="width: 100%px;">
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<tr>
<td bgcolor="#008000" width="10%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: white;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Economic
Indicator</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#008000" colspan="2" width="18%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: white;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Indicator</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#008000" colspan="2" width="18%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: white;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Stock
Reaction</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#008000" colspan="2" width="18%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: white;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Bond
Reaction</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#008000" colspan="3" width="36%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: white;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Dollar
Reaction</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" height="1" rowspan="2" width="10%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Consumer
Price Index</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="18%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="18%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="18%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="3" width="36%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UNCERTAIN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="18%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="18%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="18%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="3" width="36%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UNCERTAIN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td height="1" rowspan="2" width="10%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Producer
Price Index</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="18%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="18%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="18%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="3" width="36%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UNCERTAIN
</span></span></span>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="18%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="18%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="18%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="3" width="36%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UNCERTAIN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" height="1" rowspan="2" width="10%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Beige
Book</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="9" rowspan="2" valign="TOP" width="90%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Anecdotal
description of regional economic performance used by analysts as
a subjective measure of regional economic performance. Can serve
as an indicator of future Fed monetary policy. Because it is
subjective, its effect on the markets is determined by
interpretation.</span></span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#eeeecc" colspan="7" width="72%">
<div align="CENTER">
<br />
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td height="1" rowspan="2" width="10%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Employment
Cost Index</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" rowspan="2" width="18%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The
ECI is at comprehensive measure of employee compensation trends
as they effect production costs. Reaction to the ECI depends on
a variety of other economic conditions, particularly the Fed's
curent economic policy as it relates to inflation, unemployment,
and recession.</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td colspan="7" width="72%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#ffffcc" colspan="7" width="72%">
<div align="CENTER">
<br />
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>NAPM</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeecc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Payroll
Employment</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffcc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Unemployment
Rate</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeecc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Car
Sales</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffcc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Retail
Sales</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">LITTLE
CHANGE</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">LITTLE
CHANGE</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeecc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Industrial
Production</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">LITTLE
CHANGE</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">LITTLE
CHANGE</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffcc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>GNP</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeecc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Housing
Starts</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffcc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Capacity
Utilization</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">LITTLE
CHANGE</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">LITTLE
CHANGE</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeecc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Durable
Goods Orders</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffcc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Personal
Income</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeecc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Income
Consumption</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffcc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Leading
Indicators</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeecc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>New
Home Sales</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffcc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Construction
Spending</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeecc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Factory
Orders</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP
</span></span></span>
</div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffcc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Business
Inventories</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UNCERTAIN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UNCERTAIN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NO
REACTION</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeecc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Trade
Balance<br />(improved deficit)</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UNCERTAIN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UNCERTAIN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffcc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" height="1" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Export
Prices</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#cccccc" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeecc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" rowspan="2" width="20%">
<div style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Import
Prices</b></span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="16%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DOWN</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" colspan="2" width="20%">
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-top: 0.02in;">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span style="color: #009933;"><span style="font-family: Arial, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UP</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffffcc" width="1%">
<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</dd></dl>
<div align="CENTER" style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0.02in; margin-top: 0.02in;">
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-22308473779467389802014-06-22T21:03:00.005-07:002014-06-22T21:03:56.236-07:0023rd June 2014 Short GBPAUDGood trade set up.<br />
<br />
Short GBPAUD<br />
SL: 1.822<br />
TP: 1.7835<br />
<br />
Using a bit more than our usual margin due to the excellent set up.Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-68714828667905491312014-06-18T22:29:00.001-07:002014-06-18T22:29:28.243-07:00EURJPY June 2014<a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/89003617@N00/14455095592" title="EJ TP 137.7 SL 139.98 by Cherub wiseoftheday.blogspot.sg, on Flickr"><img alt="EJ TP 137.7 SL 139.98" height="576" src="https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5591/14455095592_7492e57908_b.jpg" width="1024" /></a>
<br />
<br />
EURJPY<br />
TP- 137.7<br />
SL- 139.98Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-45443548265647063202014-06-18T22:04:00.001-07:002014-06-18T22:04:18.304-07:00EURAUD- June 2014 <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/89003617@N00/14476508413" title="EA TP1.4746 SL1.436 by Cherub wiseoftheday.blogspot.sg, on Flickr"><img alt="EA TP1.4746 SL1.436" height="576" src="https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3893/14476508413_254d79d113_b.jpg" width="1024" /></a>
<br />
<br />
<br />
EURAUD<br />
TP1.4746<br />
SL1.436<br />
<br />Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-87068595765913474492014-06-18T21:34:00.003-07:002014-06-18T22:05:05.992-07:00USD JPY June 2014<a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/89003617@N00/14433238486" title="UJ TP103.40 SL101.55 by Cherub wiseoftheday.blogspot.sg, on Flickr"><img alt="UJ TP103.40 SL101.55" height="576" src="https://farm3.staticflickr.com/2937/14433238486_7f3fe3aa8a_b.jpg" width="1024" /></a>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
USD JPY</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
TP- 103.40 </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
SL- 101.55 </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646242363219837389.post-52691728455402837612014-06-18T21:34:00.001-07:002014-06-18T21:34:11.280-07:00Aaron- Forex Trader and publishing my Calls in this blogHi Readers!<br />
<br />
I am Aaron, and I have been doing forex trading for a very long time.<br />
I have been experimenting with all sorts of forex trading patterns and indicators to see which types of indicators works with which forex currency pairs (You would be surprised at how some indicators work so well with certain currency pairs, and gives tons of false signals in others)<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i221.photobucket.com/albums/dd123/cherryharley/SeasonalTree.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i221.photobucket.com/albums/dd123/cherryharley/SeasonalTree.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
For the past few years, I have also observe how some currency pairs have seasonal trends and volatility.<br />
Imagine how useful this is when the signals call for a buy when the currency has a strong seasonal trend!<br />
<br />
You may ask, what are some of my tools?<br />
Japanese candlesticks and the relevant price action signals, Fibonacci levels, Moving Averages, resistance and support zones, Larry William's various indicators, and countless of numerous indicators....<br />
I have been sticking to a few for my boring, consistent, profitable route, but i keep trying new ones to see how it can improve my margins!<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/pinball5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/pinball5.jpg" height="254" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Such simple maths, yet so beautiful and stunning.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Over the years, I have lost much, but I have gained much too. I am finally on a profitable path, and would like to start sharing most of my calls in this blog.<br />
<br />
I would only share calls that is used by my friends and me for consistent profitable path. There are various calls that I would not share as I am always experimenting with new ways of finding a better forex trading pattern.<br />
For the calls here, the track record so far is 80% accuracy, and I follow my SL strictly. For TP level, most of the time I stick and ride on the trend till to my TP level, but I do TP away early occasionally when the situation calls for it.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://forexwinners.ru/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Forex-traders-computer.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://forexwinners.ru/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Forex-traders-computer.jpg" height="247" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Please manage your own money wisely, and I am not a market mover, I am merely a trader that loves numbers, charts, and reading psychology of the markets.<br />
Hope these sharing will helps you to read the forex charts better!<br />
<br />Cherubhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18295501496841000968noreply@blogger.com0